2012~2022年锂离子电池贸易格局演化及影响因素分析

Analysis of the Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Li-Ion Battery Trade Pattern (2012~2022)

摘要: 如今国际贸易的演化深刻影响着世界局面的现状及走势。而锂离子电池产业作为世界新能源行业的重心之一，研究中国锂离子电池产业进出口贸易格局演变以及中国在国际市场中的地位变动，对深刻认识和有效实施绿色发展的长期发展目标具有重要的现实意义。研究基于2012~2022年中国锂离子电池进出口贸易数据，运用相互依存指数，研究中国锂离子电池对外贸易格局动态演化特征，并借助负二项回归方法分析影响贸易格局的因素。研究发现：① 中国锂离子电池贸易额正逐年上升，出口额高于进口额，存在显著的贸易顺差。中国锂离子电池进口市场高度集中，出口市场逐步多元。② 中国在世界锂离子电池贸易中的依存关系广泛，且在全球锂离子电池贸易格局中的处于优势地位，并不断强化。③ 国家对外开放程度、技术进步水平以及相关产业支持等都对中国锂离子电池贸易产生重要影响。

Abstract: The evolution of international trade profoundly influences the current state and future trajectory of the global landscape. And Li-ion battery industry as one of the centers of key point of clean energy development, the study of the evolution of China’s Li-ion battery industry import and export trade pattern and China’s position change in the international market is of great practical significance for the profound understanding and effective implementation of the long-term development goals of green development. Based on China’s Li-ion battery import and export trade data from 2012 to 2022, the study used the interdependence index to study the dynamic evolution characteristics of China’s Li-ion battery foreign trade pattern, and analyzed the factors affecting the trade pattern with the help of negative binomial regression method. The study found that: (1) China’s Li-ion battery trade volume has a rising trend, the export volume is much larger than the import volume, and there is a significant trade surplus. China’s Li-ion battery import market is highly concentrated, and the export market is gradually diversified. (2) China’s interdependence in Li-ion battery trade is extensive, and the dominant position in the global Li-ion battery trade is strengthened as a whole. (3) The degree of national openness to the outside world, the level of technological progress and related industrial support all have an important impact on China’s Li-ion battery trade.