三孩政策下生育支持政策中托育服务体系建设对家庭生育意愿的作用研究

The Impact of Childcare Service System Development on Family Fertility Intentions under the Three-Child Policy a Study of Fertility Support Measures

摘要: 文章聚焦三孩政策下托育服务体系建设对家庭生育意愿的作用，旨在为应对当前低生育困境提供政策参考。研究背景显示，2023年全国常住人口出生率仅6.39‰，低生育意愿已成为一个系统性挑战，三孩政策将普惠托育服务定位为降低养育成本的核心抓手。文章首先剖析托育服务的作用机理，指出其通过经济减负、释放时间、提升安全感三重维度影响生育意愿。具体而言，经济减负体现为降低直接照护支出，释放时间可缓解工作–家庭冲突，提升安全感则依靠专业照护降低养育焦虑。随后，文章梳理国家、四川、成都三级政策。其中，国家明确2025年实现每千人4.5个托位的目标，四川以立法强化托育设施配建要求，成都则探索推出分层补贴模式。以成都及龙泉驿区为案例，数据显示2020~2023年两地出生人口持续下滑，2024年因托育覆盖率突破70%首次回升，但仍存在普惠托育供给结构性短板、家庭信任与成本困境、社区执行梗阻等问题。结论强调托育服务需嵌入全周期生育支持体系，并通过政策优化破解现有梗阻，进而提升家庭生育信心。研究的局限性在于当前发现主要为相关性而非因果关系，未来研究应引入更严谨的因果推理方法。

Abstract: This study examines the impact of childcare service system development on family fertility intentions under China’s three-child policy, aiming to provide policy reference for addressing the current low-fertility dilemma. Research background indicates that in 2023, the national birth rate of the resident population was merely 6.39‰, with low fertility intentions emerging as a systemic challenge. The three-child policy positions universal childcare services as a core measure to reduce child-rearing costs. This article first analyzes the mechanism of childcare services, identifying three dimensions through which they influence fertility intentions: economic burden reduction, time allocation, and security enhancement. Specifically, economic burden reduction manifests as decreased direct care costs, time allocation alleviates work-family conflicts, while security enhancement relies on professional care to reduce parenting anxiety. Subsequently, the study systematically reviews policies at the national, Sichuan provincial, and Chengdu municipal levels. Among them, the national policy sets the target of achieving 4.5 childcare spaces per 1000 people by 2025. Sichuan has strengthened childcare facility requirements through legislation, while Chengdu has explored implementing a tiered subsidy model. Using Chengdu and Longquanyi District as case studies, data reveal a continuous decline in births from 2020 to 2023, with a rebound in 2024 coinciding with a significant increase in childcare coverage rate exceeding 70%. However, challenges persist, including structural gaps in universal childcare supply, family trust and cost dilemmas, and implementation obstacles at the community level. The conclusion emphasizes that childcare services must be integrated into a full-cycle fertility support system, and requiring policy optimization to overcome existing barriers and thereby enhance family fertility confidence. A limitation of this study is that the current findings are primarily correlational rather than causal, suggesting the need for more rigorous causal inference methods in future research.