基于多介质模型的矿山污染物模拟预测的研究进展与展望

Research Progress and Prospects of Simulation and Prediction of Mine Pollutants Based on Multi-Medium Model

摘要: 随着矿山的持续开采，水环境问题日益突出，铜陵市是一个具有悠久历史的资源型城市，矿产资源方面，铜、硫、铁、金、银、煤、石灰石等储量丰富，其矿产资源的开发利用，为该市经济建设和社会发展提供了坚实基础，但同时也造成了一系列严重的矿山地质环境问题。本文以铜陵市露天矿山及其附近具有相同补给和排放系统的地下水分布区域作为研究区域，对12组地表水水样和3组地下水水样中的污染物因子的浓度进行模拟预测。传统的单一介质模型难以全面评估污染风险，而多介质模型(Multimedia Model)通过耦合不同环境介质的质量平衡与动力学过程，能够更准确地预测污染物的时空分布及其生态健康风险。同时蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo Simulation, MCS)可以用于预测矿山污染物在地下水和地表水中的浓度变化，尤其是在参数不确定性较高的情况下，该方法通过随机采样输入参数的分布，运行数千至数万次的模拟，最终输出污染物浓度的概率分布，而非单一确定值，从而为铜陵市矿区及其临近区域的水环境修复和保护提供相应的技术依据。

Abstract: With the continuous exploitation of mines, water environment problems have become increasingly prominent. Tongling City is a resource-based city with a long history. In terms of mineral resources, it is rich in reserves of copper, sulfur, iron, gold, silver, coal, limestone, etc. The development and utilization of its mineral resources have laid a solid foundation for the economic construction and social development of the city, but at the same time, they have also caused a series of serious mine geological environment problems. This study takes the open-pit mines in Tongling City and the surrounding groundwater distribution areas with the same recharge and discharge systems as the research area, and conducts simulation and prediction on the concentrations of pollutant factors in 12 groups of surface water samples and 3 groups of groundwater samples. Traditional single-medium models are difficult to comprehensively assess pollution risks, while multi-media models (MMMs), by coupling the mass balance and dynamic processes of different environmental media, can more accurately predict the temporal and spatial distribution of pollutants and their ecological and health risks. Meanwhile, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) can be used to predict the concentration changes of mine pollutants in groundwater and surface water, especially when parameter uncertainty is high. This method involves randomly sampling the distribution of input parameters (such as hydrogeological parameters, pollutant release rates, etc.), running thousands to tens of thousands of simulations, and finally outputting the probability distribution of pollutant concentrations instead of a single deterministic value. Thus, it provides a corresponding technical basis for the water environment restoration and protection in the mining areas of Tongling City and their adjacent regions.