人工智能技术对制造业企业全要素生产率的影响研究

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technology on Total Factor Productivity in Manufacturing Enterprises

摘要: 在数字经济与中国制造业转型升级深度融合的背景下，人工智能(AI)已成为驱动制造业高质量发展的关键力量。本研究基于2010~2023年沪深A股制造业上市公司数据，运用固定效应模型，实证检验了AI技术对企业全要素生产率(TFP)的影响及其机制，并探讨了地区数字经济发展水平的异质性作用。研究发现：1) AI技术显著提升了制造业企业全要素生产率，该结论经一系列稳健性检验后依然成立；2) 机制分析表明，AI技术不仅通过促进技术创新，还通过增强组织韧性——即企业应对内外部冲击的适应与恢复能力，进而提升TFP；3) 异质性分析显示，AI对TFP的促进作用在数字经济发展水平较高的地区更为显著，表明良好的区域数字生态有助于强化AI的赋能效应。本研究为政府与企业制定AI赋能策略提供了理论依据与经验支持。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the deep integration of the digital economy and the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry, artificial intelligence (AI) has become a key driver of high-quality development in manufacturing. Based on data from manufacturing listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares markets from 2010 to 2023, this study employs a fixed-effects model to empirically examine the impact of AI technology on firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) and its underlying mechanisms, while also exploring the heterogeneous role of regional digital economy development levels. The findings indicate that: 1) AI technology significantly enhances the TFP of manufacturing firms, a conclusion that holds after a series of robustness tests; 2) Mechanism analysis shows that AI boosts TFP not only by promoting technological innovation but also by strengthening organizational resilience—i.e., the ability to adapt to and recover from internal and external shocks; 3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effect of AI on TFP is more pronounced in regions with higher levels of digital economy development, suggesting that a robust regional digital ecosystem can amplify the empowering effect of AI. This study provides theoretical foundations and empirical evidence for governments and enterprises in formulating AI-enabled strategies.