湖南省经济发展水平测度与动态预测研究

Research on the Measurement and Dynamic Prediction of Economic Development Level in Hunan Province

摘要: 湖南省位于中国中部地区，是重要的经济枢纽，其经济发展状况对于区域协调发展战略意义重大，本研究以2003到2022年湖南省的经济数据为依托，采用因子分析，霍尔特线性趋势模型以及线性核支持向量回归等方法，全面评定湖南省的经济发展水平，并对其未来走向作出预测。在因子分析环节，构建起含9项主要经济指标的考量体系，从中得到“经济发展综合因子”和“经济活力与外资利用因子”，从而达成对经济发展水平的有效量化。预测部分就综合得分时间序列数据而言，分别用霍尔特线性趋势模型，线性核支持向量回归模型来执行预测，两种预测的结果都表明湖南省经济将会持续增长，建议有关部门采取推动产业结构高阶化等策略。

Abstract: Hunan Province, situated in central China, serves as a pivotal economic hub whose development status holds strategic significance for regional coordination. This study leverages economic data from Hunan Province (2003~2022) to comprehensively assess its economic development level and forecast future trends through factor analysis, Holt’s linear trend model, and linear kernel support vector regression. A nine-indicator evaluation system was constructed in the factor analysis phase, extracting two principal components: the “comprehensive economic development factor” and the “economic vitality and foreign capital utilization factor”, achieving effective quantification of development levels. For forecasting the integrated score time series, both Holt’s model and linear kernel SVR were employed, with results consistently demonstrating sustained economic growth in Hunan Province. The study recommends policy measures such as promoting high-end industrial restructuring to optimize development trajectories.