论证中高收入国家人均GDP与婴儿死亡率关系变化的“拐点”假设

Proving the “Inflection Point” Hypothesis of the Relationship between Per Capita GDP and Infant Mortality Rate in Upper-Middle-Income Countries

摘要: 本文基于世界银行数据库的更新数据，以中高收入国家婴儿死亡率为因变量，人口、经济、能源与环境、教育、农业、卫生等6个维度的指标为自变量，进行岭回归分析，在单维分析基础上，构建了“六维一体分析框架”，旨在论证人均GDP与婴儿死亡率关系变化的“拐点”假设。结果显示，10个国家出现了从非积极影响向积极影响的第一转变，5个国家出现了从积极影响向非积极影响的第二转变。人口因素在婴儿死亡率影响因素中占据主导地位，人均GDP并不总是影响因素。面对关系变化应适时调整防控策略，在不同发展阶段应落实针对性的防控举措。

Abstract: This article is based on updated data from the World Bank database, with infant mortality rate in upper-middle-income countries as the dependent variable and six dimensions of indicators including population, economy, energy and environment, education, agriculture, and health as independent variables. Ridge regression analysis is conducted, and a “six-dimensional integrated analysis framework” is constructed based on single dimensional analysis to demonstrate the “inflection point” hypothesis of the relationship between per capita GDP and infant mortality rate. The results showed that 10 countries experienced the first transition from non-positive impact to positive impact, and 5 countries experienced the second transition from positive impact to non-positive impact. Population factors dominate the influencing factors of infant mortality rate, and per capita GDP is not always the influencing factor. In the face of changes in relationships, prevention and control strategies should be adjusted in a timely manner, and targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented at different stages of development.