基于西南区域模式SWC-WARMS的管制运行气象支持产品研究

Research on Air Traffic Control Operation Meteorological Support Products Based on the Southwest Regional Model SWC-WARMS

摘要: 由于气象预报的特殊性和局限性，无法人工精准地定时、定量、定点进行预报。为弥补上述缺陷，同时更好地为管制部门服务，本文利用高分辨率西南区域模式SWC-WARMS资料，研发完成管制运行气象支持产品，以直观的图形化分级方式展示天气影响程度，解决了目前业务工作中MDRS概率预警主观分级不足的问题，为管制和流量部门提供了可靠的科学决策依据，同时也为西南地区的管制运行提供了新的预警产品。该产品分为三部分，分别对西南地区重要航路、终端区繁忙导航点以及终端区分区进行精细化预报。

Abstract: Due to the particularity and limitations of meteorological forecasting, it is impossible to achieve accurate manual forecasting with precise time, quantity and location. To make up for these short- comings and better serve air traffic control departments, this paper develops air traffic control operation meteorological support products using high-resolution data from the Southwest Regional Model SWC-WARMS. These products display the degree of weather impact through an intuitive graphical grading method, addressing the insufficient subjective grading of MDRS probability early warnings in current operational work. They provide a reliable scientific decision-making basis for air traffic control and flow management departments, while also offering a new early warning product for air traffic control operations in the southwest region. The products consist of three parts, providing refined forecasts for important air routes, busy navigation points in terminal areas, and zoned terminal areas in the southwest region respectively.