生态潜力对旅游产业效率的空间溢出效应研究——基于大别山片区的杜宾模型分析

Research on the Spatial Spillover Effects of Ecological Potential on Tourism Industry Efficiency—A Durbin Model Analysis Based on the Greater Dabie Mountain Area

摘要: 大别山片区作为长江中下游核心生态屏障，生态资源转化为旅游产业动能的路径对区域高质量发展至关重要。本文针对大别山片区这一整体的“自然–社会”耦合系统，构建涵盖生态资本存量、环境韧性强度、设施智慧化水平、制度执行效能、社区可持续动力5大维度的生态潜力综合评价体系，运用熵值法与线性加权法测度2015~2024年大别山片区39县(市、区)的生态潜力；结合超效率SBM模型量化县域旅游产业效率，并应用空间杜宾模型(SDM)检验生态潜力对旅游产业效率的空间溢出效应。研究发现：1) 生态潜力对旅游产业效率存在“本地增益–邻地抑制”双向效应。提升生态潜力虽能促进旅游产业效率(直接效应为0.741)，但会显著抑制周边地区发展(空间溢出效应为−2.501)。2) 生态资本存量通过“品牌溢价–资源虹吸”双重路径发挥作用，环境韧性强度呈现“保护–约束”的对抗效应，设施智慧化则在提升本地管理效率的同时，加剧了边缘区域的“数字鸿沟”。这些因素共同解释了为何生态禀赋高的地区会对周边产生显著的负向溢出。3) 空间计量结果显示，大别山片区基础设施互联互通有所发展，但生态潜力未能转化为区域共享收益，反而强化了“中心–边缘”结构，影响区域协调发展进程。

Abstract: As a core ecological barrier in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the pathway for converting ecological resources into tourism industry momentum in the Dabie Mountain Area is crucial for high-quality regional development. Targeting the Dabie Mountain Area as an integrated “natural-social” coupled system, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system for ecological potential covering five dimensions: ecological capital stock, environmental resilience intensity, facility intelligence level, institutional execution efficacy, and community sustainable motivation. Using the entropy method and linear weighting method, the ecological potential of 39 counties (cities, districts) in the Dabie Mountain Area from 2015 to 2024 is measured. Combined with the super-efficiency SBM model to quantify county-level tourism industry efficiency, the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) is applied to examine the spatial spillover effects of ecological potential on tourism industry efficiency. The findings are as follows: 1) Ecological potential has a dual effect of “local benefit-neighboring inhibition” on tourism industry efficiency. While enhancing ecological potential promotes local tourism industry efficiency (direct effect is 0.741), it significantly inhibits the development of surrounding areas (spatial spillover effect is −2.501). 2) Ecological capital stock functions through the dual pathways of “brand premium-resource siphoning”, environmental resilience intensity exhibits an antagonistic effect of “protection-constraint”, and facility intelligence, while improving local management efficiency, exacerbates the “digital divide” in peripheral areas. These factors collectively explain why areas with high ecological endowment generate significant negative spillovers to their neighbors. 3) Spatial econometric results indicate that while infrastructure connectivity in the Dabie Mountain Area has developed, ecological potential has not been transformed into regionally shared benefits; instead, it has reinforced the “core-periphery” structure, affecting the process of regional coordinated development.