“双碳”背景下大学生低碳旅游意愿影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of College Students’ Willingness for Low-Carbon Tourism under the “Dual-Carbon” Background

摘要: 在国家“双碳”战略背景下，推动旅游业绿色转型已成为行业高质量发展的核心议题。本研究旨在实证解构作为未来社会中坚力量的大学生群体的低碳旅游意愿。为克服单一理论模型的解释局限，本研究整合计划行为理论(TPB)的理性路径与价值–信念–规范理论(VBN)的道德路径，构建了一个双重驱动的整合模型。通过对496份有效大学生问卷调查数据的收集，并运用二元Logit回归模型对低碳旅游意愿的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：个体特征层面，性别(女性意愿更高)和专业(理工农医类意愿更高)对低碳旅游意愿有显著影响。心理变量层面，源于TPB的低碳旅游态度、主观规范、感知行为控制，以及源于VBN的低碳旅游认知、个人规范，均对低碳旅游意愿表现出显著的正向影响。其中，低碳旅游认知的影响最为突出。基于上述发现，本文提出应优先深化认知教育、强化感知行为控制、营造社会规范、激发道德责任并塑造积极态度；同时，在推广策略上，需针对不同性别和专业群体设计差异化的干预措施，并从目的地治理角度优化低碳旅游供给，以有效提升大学生低碳旅游参与意愿，进而推动整个社会的可持续旅游发展。本研究为高校、政府及旅游业制定有效的低碳旅游引导策略提供了理论依据与实践参考。

Abstract: Under the context of China’s “dual carbon” strategy, promoting the green transformation of the tourism industry has become a core issue for high-quality development of the sector. This study aims to empirically deconstruct the low-carbon tourism intention of college students, who represent the future backbone of society. To overcome the explanatory limitations of single theoretical models, this research integrates the rational pathway of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with the moral pathway of the Value-Belief-Norm Theory (VBN), constructing a dual-driven integrated model. Through the collection of 496 valid questionnaire responses from college students and employing a binary Logit regression model, this study conducts an empirical analysis of factors influencing low-carbon tourism intention. The results indicate that: At the individual characteristic level, gender (females demonstrate higher intention) and academic major (STEM majors show higher intention) have significant impacts on low-carbon tourism intention. At the psychological variable level, low-carbon tourism attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control derived from TPB, as well as low-carbon tourism awareness and personal norms derived from VBN, all exhibit significant positive effects on low-carbon tourism intention. Among these factors, low-carbon tourism awareness demonstrates the most prominent influence. Based on these findings, this paper proposes that priority should be given to deepening cognitive education, strengthening perceived behavioral control, cultivating social norms, activating moral responsibility, and shaping positive attitudes. Meanwhile, in terms of promotion strategies, differentiated intervention measures need to be designed for different gender and major groups, and low-carbon tourism supply should be optimized from a destination governance perspective to effectively enhance college students’ willingness to participate in low-carbon tourism, thereby promoting sustainable tourism development across society.