基于无风险定期储蓄及有风险投资组合的两种养老金投资策略的量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of Pension Investment Strategies Based on Risk-Free Regular Savings and Risky Investment Portfolio

摘要: 本文针对构建的养老金计划，探讨了“无风险定期储蓄”及“定期储蓄与风险资产构成的投资组合”两种养老金投资策略，并利用贴现函数、期望收益、标准差等金融数学工具给出了具体的量化分析，研究表明，对于“无风险定期储蓄”养老金策略，投资者每月支付养老金所占工资的比例，显著依赖于定期储蓄月利率与养老金月增长率的差额，当该差额固定时，工资支付比例保持相对稳定；对于“有风险投资组合”下的投资策略，每月投资养老金所占工资的比例与其能承担的金融风险能力密切相关。

Abstract: This paper examines two pension investment strategies: the “risk-free regular savings” plan and the “investment portfolio composed of regular savings and risky assets”. Using financial mathematical tools such as discount functions, expected returns, and standard deviations, a detailed quantitative analysis is conducted. The study reveals two key findings: for the risk-free regular savings strategy, the required monthly contribution as a percentage of salary is predominantly determined by the spread between the monthly savings rate and pension growth rate, maintaining relative stability when this differential remains constant. Under the risky portfolio strategy, however, the optimal contribution ratio exhibits strong dependence on the investor's financial risk tolerance.