农村电子商务对农民增收的影响研究——基于数字普惠金融的调节效应与门槛效应

Research on the Impact of Rural E-Commerce on Farmers’ Income Growth—The Moderating and Threshold Effects of Digital Inclusive Finance

摘要: 本文基于2014~2023年我国31个省级行政单位的面板数据，实证检验农村电商对农民增收的影响机制，并进一步分析数字普惠金融的调节效应、非线性门槛效应及异质性特征。研究发现：第一，农村电子商务显著促进了农村居民收入增长；第二，数字普惠金融在农村电商促进农民增收过程中发挥正向调节作用，并呈现双门槛效应；第三，农村电商的增收效应在不同群体和地区间存在显著差异，表现为对低收入群体、高教育水平群体及东部地区农民的促进作用更为明显。基于此，本文建议持续推动农村电商高质量发展，完善数字普惠金融体系，强化金融赋能效应，同时因地制宜提升中西部地区电商发展能力，促进区域间协调发展，进一步释放数字经济赋能“三农”的潜力。

Abstract: Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2014 to 2023, this paper empirically examines the impact of rural e-commerce on farmers’ income growth, and further analyzes the moderating effect, nonlinear threshold effect, and heterogeneity characteristics. The results show that: (1) rural e-commerce significantly promotes the growth of rural residents’ income; (2) digital inclusive finance exerts a positive moderating effect in the relationship between rural e-commerce and farmers’ income, and presents a double-threshold effect; (3) the income-enhancing effect of rural e-commerce varies significantly across groups and regions, being more pronounced among low-income farmers, those with higher education levels, and in eastern regions. Accordingly, this paper suggests continuously promoting the high-quality development of rural e-commerce, improving the digital inclusive financial system, strengthening financial empowerment, and enhancing the e-commerce development capacity of central and western regions to promote balanced regional development and fully unleash the potential of the digital economy in empowering rural revitalization.