基于GNSS的面雨量预测技术研究

Research on GNSS-Based Area Rainfall Prediction Technology

摘要: 面雨量预测对于支撑雨水情测报、防洪减灾等水利业务至关重要。传统降雨量预测手段存在多方面制约，基于全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)的面雨量预测技术研究具有较广阔的应用前景。本文重点阐述了基于GNSS反演大气可降雨量(PWV)及降雨预测模型的面雨量预测技术，深入分析了基于该技术研发的面雨量监测设备在武汉市范围内的降雨预测能力评价，并对当前应用情况和未来发展趋势进行了探讨。实验结果表明预测的降雨过程与实际降雨过程吻合情况较好；中雨及以下场次的降雨预测精度较好，大雨及暴雨的预测精度有待加强。

Abstract: Area rainfall forecasting is crucial for supporting hydrological monitoring, flood control, and disaster mitigation. Traditional precipitation forecasting methods face various constraints, whereas research on area precipitation forecasting technology based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) holds broad application prospects. This paper focuses on elaborating the area precipitation forecasting technology based on GNSS-retrieved Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) and rainfall prediction models. It provides an in-depth analysis of the rainfall forecasting capability evaluation of an area precipitation monitoring device, developed based on this technology, within the Wuhan region. Furthermore, the current application status and future development trends are discussed. Experimental results indicate a good agreement between the predicted and actual rainfall processes. The forecasting accuracy is satisfactory for light to moderate rain events, whereas the accuracy for heavy rain and rainstorm events needs improvement.