电子商务快速发展背景下城市配送交通碳排放测算与治理策略研究——以成都市为例

Research on Estimation and Governance Strategies of Urban Delivery-Related Transportation Carbon Emissions under the Rapid Development of E-Commerce—A Case Study of Chengdu

摘要: 随着电子商务规模持续高速增长，我国城市道路交通结构和运行特征发生显著变化，电商物流、即时配送及城市货运需求快速攀升，成为城市交通碳排放的重要推动力量。在“双碳”战略背景下，厘清电商驱动的交通碳排放变化特征，对构建绿色电商供应链和推进城市低碳转型具有重要意义。本文以成都市为例，基于政府统计数据、交通部门资料及相关文献，构建自下而上的道路交通碳排放测算模型，对2018~2022年城市配送相关交通工具的碳排放进行量化评估。研究发现：(1) 受电商购物增长和快递物流需求攀升影响，载货汽车与出租车碳排放显著增加，其中载货汽车排放五年增长约56%，出租车增长超过200%；(2) 私人汽车及摩托车因同城配送、即时配送等业务量扩张而呈现隐性增长趋势；(3) 公共交通低碳化成效明显，但与电商物流关联度较低。基于此，提出推动配送车辆新能源化、建设前置仓及共同配送体系、利用平台算法优化路径、加强网约车配送监管等策略，以期为城市在电商时代的绿色交通治理提供参考。

Abstract: With the rapid expansion of e-commerce in China, the structure and operational characteristics of urban road transportation have undergone significant changes. The sharp increase in e-commerce logistics, instant delivery services, and urban freight demand has become an important driver of transportation-related carbon emissions. Under the national “Dual Carbon” strategy, identifying the characteristics of e-commerce-induced transportation emissions is essential for building a green e-commerce supply chain and promoting low-carbon urban transitions. Using Chengdu as a case study, this paper constructs a bottom-up estimation model based on government statistics, transportation sector data, and relevant literature to quantify carbon emissions from urban delivery-related transportation modes from 2018 to 2022. The results show that: (1) driven by the continuous growth of online shopping and express logistics demand, carbon emissions from freight vehicles and taxis increased significantly, with freight vehicle emissions rising by approximately 56% and taxi emissions increasing by more than 200% over five years; (2) emissions from private cars and motorcycles exhibit implicit growth patterns due to the expansion of same-city delivery and instant delivery services; and (3) public transportation has achieved notable progress in low-carbon development, although its relevance to e-commerce logistics remains limited. Based on these findings, this paper proposes strategies such as accelerating the adoption of new-energy delivery vehicles, developing front-distribution warehouses and joint-delivery systems, optimizing routing through platform algorithms, and strengthening supervision over ride-hailing-based delivery activities. These recommendations aim to provide insights for green transportation governance in the e-commerce era.