数字经济背景下技术外溢对制造业出口技术复杂的影响——基于284个地级市的实证检验

The Impact of Technological Spillover in the Context of Digital Economy on the Complexity of Exported Technologies in the Manufacturing Industry—Empirical Evidence from 284 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

摘要: 在全球价值链深度调整和数字经济快速发展的背景下，提升制造业出口技术复杂度已成为我国迈向价值链中高端的重要任务。本文基于2011~2023年284个地级及以上城市的面板数据，从专利被引次数构建城市层面的技术外溢指标，系统考察技术外溢对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响，并进一步检验数字经济的调节作用。研究发现：技术外溢能够显著提升制造业出口技术复杂度，该作用在缩尾处理以及工具变量检验后依然稳健；数字经济能够强化技术外溢向出口技术复杂度的传导效率，在信息流动、知识获取和技术学习等环节形成放大效应。本文的研究揭示了技术外溢促进制造业出口技术升级的内在机理，为区域提升外溢吸收能力和优化数字经济发展提供有益参考。

Abstract: In the context of profound adjustments in the global value chain and the rapid development of the digital economy, enhancing the technological sophistication of China’s manufacturing exports has become a key task for moving toward higher segments of the value chain. Using panel data for 284 prefecture-level and above cities from 2011 to 2023, this study constructs a city-level technology spillover indicator based on patent citations, and systematically examines the effect of technology spillovers on the sophistication of manufacturing exports. It further investigates the moderating role of the digital economy. The empirical results show that technology spillovers significantly promote the upgrading of manufacturing export sophistication, and this effect remains robust after winsorization and instrumental variable estimation. Moreover, the digital economy strengthens the transmission efficiency of technology spillovers by amplifying information flow, knowledge acquisition, and technology learning. This study reveals the internal mechanism through which technology spillovers drive the technological upgrading of manufacturing exports and provides useful implications for enhancing regional absorptive capacity and optimizing digital economy development.