育儿短视频对个体生育意愿的双刃剑效应：基于电商经济的视角分析

The Double-Edged Sword Effect of Parenting Short Videos on Individual Fertility Intentions: An Analysis from the Perspective of the E-Commerce Economy

摘要: 在数字经济与低生育率交织的宏观背景下，以抖音、快手为代表的短视频平台已演变为集内容传播、社群互动与商业交易于一体的综合性电商生态。育儿类短视频作为该生态中的重要垂直领域，不仅塑造着个体对家庭与育儿的认知，更通过其内嵌的消费引导与经济活动，深刻影响青年的家庭经济预期与生育决策。本文系统探讨了育儿短视频对个体生育意愿的“双刃剑”效应及其作用机制。同时，本研究进一步指出，平台经济的核心机制——如算法推荐、KOL带货与内容电商——在这一过程中扮演了关键性的调节角色。它们不仅放大了特定叙事，更直接将育儿认知与消费决策相耦合。因此，理解育儿短视频对生育意愿的影响，必须置于平台经济的运行逻辑之下。本文结论为电子商务平台优化内容治理、平衡商业价值与社会责任，以及政府部门设计基于数字生态的生育支持政策，提供了重要的理论依据与实践启示。

Abstract: Amid the macro backdrop of the digital economy and low fertility rates, short video platforms represented by Douyin and Kuaishou have evolved into comprehensive e-commerce ecosystems that integrate content dissemination, community interaction, and commercial transactions. Parenting short videos, as a key vertical within this ecosystem, not only shape individuals’ perceptions of family and child-rearing but also profoundly influence young people’s expectations of family finances and fertility decisions through their embedded consumer guidance and economic activities. This paper systematically explores the “double-edged sword” effect of parenting short videos on individual fertility intentions and their underlying mechanisms. At the same time, the study further points out that the core mechanisms of the platform economy—such as algorithmic recommendations, KOL-driven sales, and content-based e-commerce—play a crucial moderating role in this process. They not only amplify specific narratives but directly couple parenting perceptions with consumer decisions. Therefore, understanding the impact of parenting short videos on fertility intentions must be situated within the operational logic of the platform economy. The conclusions of this paper provide important theoretical basis and practical insights for e-commerce platforms to optimize content governance, balance commercial value with social responsibility, and for government agencies to design fertility support policies based on digital ecosystems.