上海市汽车保有量及结构预测研究

Research on the Forecast of Automobile Ownership and Structure in Shanghai

摘要: 随着中国新能源汽车产业的快速发展，预测区域市场保有量对城市交通规划、充电基础设施布局及产业政策制定具有重要意义。文章基于2019~2023年上海市小型燃油汽车与新能源汽车保有量数据，构建了包括指数平滑、线性回归、随机森林、XGBoost、支持向量回归与Stacking集成学习在内的多模型预测框架，分别对未来小型燃油汽车与新能源汽车保有量进行预测。进一步，引入包含补贴、充电设施、限行政策与饱和效应的多因素动态增长模型，分析政策干预对新能源汽车发展的影响。研究结果表明，上海市新能源汽车保有量预计将持续增长，并在未来超过小型燃油汽车；多因素模型及政策情景分析表明限行政策加强仅适合作为短期调控工具。研究为上海市新能源汽车政策的制定与交通结构的优化提供了一定的科学依据。

Abstract: With the rapid development of China’s new energy vehicle industry, predicting the market stock in specific regions is of great significance for urban transportation planning, the layout of charging infrastructure, and the formulation of industrial policies. Based on the data of small car and new energy vehicle stock in Shanghai from 2019 to 2023, this paper systematically constructed a multi-model prediction framework including exponential smoothing, linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, support vector regression, and Stacking ensemble learning, and made predictions for the future stock of small cars and new energy vehicles respectively. Furthermore, a multi-factor dynamic growth model incorporating subsidies, charging facilities, restriction policies, and saturation effects was introduced to analyze the impact of policy intervention on the development of new energy vehicles. The results show that the stock of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is expected to maintain steady growth and may surpass that of small fuel vehicles in the future. The multi-factor model and policy scenario analysis indicate that the strengthening of restriction policies is only suitable as a short-term regulatory tool. This study provides a scientific basis for the formulation of new energy vehicle policies and the optimization of the transportation structure in Shanghai.