基于级联失效模型的山东高速公路网络韧性研究

Research on Resilience of Shandong Expressway Network Based on Cascading Failure Model

摘要: 高速公路作为国家关键基础设施，对突发事件下的交通网络韧性保障至关重要。针对传统的节点重要性评估和级联失效模型的局限，本研究采用TOPSIS多属性决策方法，融合度值、介数、中心性及实际交通流量以构建高速公路节点重要度评价体系，并以此为基础定义节点初始负载，建立考虑节点重要度的负载重分配的“负载–容量”级联失效模型，并以山东省高速公路网为例进行实证分析。研究结果表明：(1) 考虑负载重分配的级联失效过程会显著加剧网络的脆弱性；(2) 网络对蓄意攻击高度敏感，其中基于介数的攻击策略破坏性尤为突出，揭示了综合评价指标在识别特定脆弱性时可能存在“稀释效应”；(3) 将实际流量纳入节点重要性评估，能更真实地反映网络功能关键点；提升网络的容量冗余参数(α, β)能有效增强其整体韧性。本研究为高速公路网络的风险评估、脆弱性识别及韧性提升策略提供了新的理论视角和科学依据。

Abstract: As a critical national infrastructure, expressway networks play a vital role in ensuring the resilience of transportation networks during emergencies. To address the limitations of traditional node importance evaluation methods and cascading failure models, this study adopts the TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) multi-attribute decision-making approach. It integrates degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and actual traffic flow to construct an evaluation system for the importance of expressway network nodes. Based on this system, the initial load of nodes is defined, and a “load-capacity” cascading failure model that considers node importance in load redistribution is established. An empirical analysis is conducted using the expressway network of Shandong Province as a case study. The results show that: (1) The cascading failure process with load redistribution significantly increases the vulnerability of the network; (2) The network is highly sensitive to intentional attacks, among which the attack strategy based on betweenness centrality is particularly destructive, revealing that comprehensive evaluation indicators may have a “dilution effect” when identifying specific vulnerabilities; (3) Incorporating actual traffic flow into node importance evaluation can more truly reflect the functional key nodes of the network; improving the network’s capacity redundancy parameters (α, β) can effectively enhance its overall resilience. This study provides a new theoretical perspective and scientific basis for risk assessment, vulnerability identification, and resilience improvement strategies of expressway networks.