我国对外贸易建设项目选址的作用机制与实证研究

Empirical Research on the Mechanisms of Action in the Location Choice of China’s Outward Foreign Trade-Related Construction Projects

摘要: 在全球工程建设合作需求扩张的背景下，中国对外工程建设项目已形成广泛跨国网络，但传统FDI理论难以解释其选址逻辑。本文以2005~2023年中国在143个国家和地区实施的2149个对外建设项目为样本，采用条件logit与混合效应logistic回归，系统探究东道国制度质量、双边贸易成本及双边贸易协定(BTA)对选址的影响机制。研究发现，东道国制度质量对选址呈显著负向影响，这一结果可通过“制度补偿”(企业自带标准化流程弥补东道国制度缺陷)与“战略建设”(契合基建刚需与区域发展战略)视角解释。双边贸易成本存在维度异质性，整体贸易成本仅直接抑制选址，而关税成本不仅自身显著负向影响选址，还会强化制度质量的负向效应，形成“劣势叠加”。BTA作为制度性合作框架，能有效缓冲制度质量缺陷与贸易成本的负面影响，弱化二者对选址的制约。此外，东道国市场规模、产业适配性、外资吸引力正向影响选址，地理距离、高税负与高失业率则起阻碍作用。本研究揭示了中国对外建设项目“战略导向 + 制度补偿”的独特选址逻辑，丰富了跨国基建项目区位选择的理论研究，为企业优化选址策略与政策层完善双边工程合作机制提供了实证支撑。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the expanding global demand for engineering and construction cooperation, China’s outward engineering and construction projects have established an extensive cross-border network. However, traditional Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) theories struggle to reasonably explain their location choice logic. Based on a sample of 2149 outward construction projects implemented by China in 143 countries and regions during 2005~2023, this study employs conditional logit and mixed-effects logistic regression models to systematically explore the impact mechanisms of host countries’ institutional quality, bilateral trade costs, and Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTAs) on location choice. The findings reveal that host countries’ institutional quality exerts a significantly negative impact on location choice, which can be explained from the perspectives of “institutional compensation” (enterprises bring standardized processes to make up for host countries’ institutional deficiencies) and “strategic construction” (aligning with rigid infrastructure demand and regional development strategies). Bilateral trade costs exhibit dimensional heterogeneity: overall trade costs only directly inhibit location choice, while tariff costs not only have a significantly negative direct impact but also strengthen the negative effect of institutional quality, forming a “superposition of disadvantages”. As an institutional cooperation framework, BTAs can effectively mitigate the negative impacts of institutional quality deficiencies and trade costs, weakening their constraints on location choice. Additionally, host countries’ market size, industrial compatibility, and foreign investment attractiveness positively influence location choice, while geographical distance, high tax burden, and high unemployment rate act as hindrances. This study uncovers the unique location choice logic of China’s outward construction projects characterized by “strategic orientation + institutional compensation”, enriches the theoretical research on the location choice of cross-border infrastructure projects, and provides empirical support for enterprises to optimize their location strategies and policymakers to improve bilateral engineering cooperation mechanisms.