社会保险支出对居民消费支出的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Social Security Expenditure on Consumption Expenditure of Residents

摘要: 消费在居民生活和国民经济中扮演着不可替代的作用，不仅直接关系到居民的生活质量和幸福感，而且逐渐成为中国经济增长的“主引擎”。文章认为，社会保险支出可以通过调整社会收入分配、影响个人生命周期内消费抉择、改变收入不确定性预期来影响居民的消费。因此，中国可以加强社会保险制度建设，全面增强居民消费潜力，缩小地区和城乡差距，从而加速内循环。本文围绕社会保险支出对消费的影响问题展开研究，综述前人观点，分析居民消费与社会保险支出现状，论述社会保险支出对消费的影响作用机理，并以2013~2020年省级面板数据为基础，引入可支配收入、货币资产存量、调整离差率作为控制变量，建立个体固定效应模型验证社会保险支出对居民消费支出的正向影响，并提出政策建议。

Abstract: Consumption plays an irreplaceable role in both the daily lives of residents and the national economy, not only directly affecting residents’ quality of life, but also becoming the “main engine” of China’s economic growth. This article believes that social security expenditures can influence consumption by adjusting income distribution, influencing personal consumption choices over the lifecycle, and changing expectations of income uncertainty. Therefore, China can strengthen the construction of the social security system, comprehensively enhance the consumption potential of residents, narrow the gap between regions and urban-rural areas, and thus promote the internal circulation of economic growth. This article focuses on the impact of social security expenditures on consumption, summarizes previous research, analyzes the current situation of resident consumption and social security expenditures, discusses the mechanism by which social security expenditures affect consumption, and establishes an individual fixed-effect model based on provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020, introducing disposable income, monetary assets, and adjusted deviation rate as control variables to verify the positive impact of social security expenditures on resident consumption expenditures. In the end of this article, policy recommendations are proposed.