猪场尼帕病毒传播的动力学建模与多措施防控评估
Modeling the Transmission Dynamics and Evaluating Intervention Strategies for Nipah Virus in Pig Farms
摘要: 尼帕病毒(NiV)在猪场中的传播构成重大公共卫生威胁。本研究建立SEAIRS-SEI人猪耦合模型，通过理论分析和数值模拟评估三种控制措施的效果。结果表明：当基本再生数R0小于1时疫情可控，当R0大于1时可能暴发疫情；单一措施效果有限，而工人防护(ε)、有效治疗(φ)和猪群扑杀(ξ)三措施协同可将R0降至0.63，实现有效防控。本研究为尼帕病毒防控提供了重要理论依据。
Abstract: Nipah Virus (NiV) transmission in pig farms poses a significant public health threat. This study establishes a coupled human-pig SEAIRS-SEI model to assess the effectiveness of three control measures through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. The results indicate that an outbreak is controllable when the basic reproduction number (R₀) is less than 1, but may escalate if R₀ exceeds 1. While individual measures show limited efficacy, the combined implementation of worker protection (ε), effective treatment (φ), and pig culling (ξ) can synergistically reduce R₀ to 0.63, thereby achieving effective containment. This research provides an important theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of Nipah Virus outbreaks.
文章引用：李文慧, 王帅. 猪场尼帕病毒传播的动力学建模与多措施防控评估 [J]. 应用数学进展, 2026, 15(1): 312-325. https://doi.org/10.12677/aam.2026.151031

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