人才政策对人口净流入的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Talent Policies on Net Population Inflow

摘要: 本文结合中国284个地级市2014~2022年的面板数据，采用多期双重差分法(DID)实证检验了人才政策对人口净流入的影响。研究发现：第一，人才政策整体上对人口净流入具有显著的正向促进作用，该结论在稳健性检验后依然成立。第二，政策效果存在显著的异质性：从地域分布看，东部城市政策效果显著；从地理分区看，非沿海城市因依赖政策补偿区位劣势，其效果显著性强于沿海城市。本文研究表明，人才引进政策的效应高度依赖城市的地理区位与资源禀赋，未来政策设计需遵循“差异化、精准化、生态化、长效化”原则，因地制宜，制定长期有效的战略。

Abstract: This paper uses panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2014 to 2022 and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) method to empirically examine the impact of talent policies on net population inflow. The study finds that: First, talent policies, overall, have a significant positive effect on net population inflow, and this conclusion remains valid after robustness checks. Second, there is significant heterogeneity in policy effects: geographically, the policy effect is significant in eastern cities; geographically, non-coastal cities, due to their reliance on policies to compensate for locational disadvantages, show a stronger significant effect than coastal cities. This study indicates that the effect of talent attraction policies highly depends on the city’s geographical location and resource endowments. Future policy design needs to follow the principles of “differentiation, precision, ecological sustainability, and long-term effectiveness”, adapting to local conditions and formulating long-term effective strategies.