电子商务进农村综合示范政策对农户创业的影响

The Impact of the Comprehensive Demonstration Policy for E-Commerce Entering Rural Areas on Farmers’ Entrepreneurship

摘要: 本文以电子商务进农村综合示范政策作为准自然实验场景，基于中国家庭追踪调查六期面板数据，采用多期双重差分模型，实证检验该政策对农户创业行为的影响及其作用机制。研究发现，电子商务进农村综合示范政策的实施显著提升了农户的创业概率，平均效应约为1.29个百分点。异质性分析表明，该政策对西部地区农户、互联网使用群体及人力资本水平较高的农户创业促进作用更为突出。机制检验揭示，政策主要通过提高县域消费水平与农户风险承担意愿两条路径激发创业活动。本研究结论支持农村电子商务建设具有创业赋能效应，可为相关政策优化提供参考依据。

Abstract: Taking the comprehensive demonstration policy for e-commerce entering rural areas as a quasi-natural experiment and drawing on six waves of panel data from the China Family Panel Studies, this paper employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the policy’s impact on farmers’ entrepreneurial behavior and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that the policy significantly raises the probability of farmers engaging in entrepreneurship by approximately 1.29 percentage points on average. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the effect is more pronounced for farmers in western China, those with internet access, and those endowed with higher human capital. Mechanism tests reveal that the policy stimulates entrepreneurial activity primarily by elevating county-level consumption and enhancing farmers’ willingness to take risks. These findings support the view that rural e-commerce construction has an entrepreneurship-empowering effect and can provide an evidential basis for further policy refinement.