论证中低收入国家婴儿死亡率与人均GDP关系变化的“拐点”假设

Demonstrating the “Inflection Point” Hypothesis of the Relationship between Per Capita GDP and Infant Mortality Rate in Lower-Middle-Income Countries

摘要: 目的：论证人均GDP与婴儿死亡率关系变化的“拐点”假设。方法：以中低收入国家的婴儿死亡率为因变量，经济、人口、农业、教育、能源与环境、卫生等6个维度的指标为自变量，进行阶段性岭回归分析，在单维分析基础上，构建“六维一体分析框架”，通过人均GDP回归系数t检验结果的阶段性变化判断“拐点”假设。结果：在纳入研究的55个中低收入国家中，经阶段性合并，29个国家的第一阶段人均GDP回归系数的t检验差异无统计学意义(P > 0.05)，第二阶段差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。人口因素始终占据主导地位，人均GDP并不总是婴儿死亡率的影响因素。结论：部分中低收入国家人均GDP与婴儿死亡率存在从非积极影响向积极影响的关系转变。面对关系变化应适时调整防控策略，并落实针对性的防控措施。

Abstract: Objective: This paper aims to demonstrate the hypothesis of a “turning point” in the relationship between per capita GDP and infant mortality rate. Method: Using infant mortality rate in Lower-middle-income countries as the dependent variable and six dimensions of indicators including economy, population, agriculture, education, energy and environment, and health as independent variables, a staged ridge regression analysis was conducted. Based on single dimensional analysis, a “six-dimensional integrated analysis framework” was constructed to determine the “inflection point” hypothesis through the stage changes in the regression coefficient t-test results of per capita GDP. Results: Among the 55 Lower-middle-income countries included in the study, after stage wise consolidation, the t-test differences in the regression coefficients of the first stage per capita GDP in 29 countries were not statistically significant (P > 0.05), while the differences in the second stage were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Population factors always dominate, and per capita GDP is not always a factor affecting infant mortality. Conclusion: There is a shift in the relationship between per capita GDP and infant mortality rate from a non positive impact to a positive impact in some Lower-middle-income countries. In the face of changes in relationships, it is necessary to adjust prevention and control strategies in a timely manner and implement targeted prevention and control measures.