城乡要素流动、空间溢出与县域经济发展——以川渝地区为例

Urban-Rural Factor Flows, Spatial Spillovers, and County-Level Economic Development—Evidence from the Sichuan-Chongqing Region

摘要: 为揭示“人口–土地–资本”城乡要素流动对县域经济的影响机制，优化区域间要素配置，本文基于2013~2023年川渝地区159个县域面板数据，采用双向固定效应空间杜宾模型(SDM)展开实证分析空间溢出效应和交互效应。结果表明：县域经济发展存在显著的空间依赖性，呈现“高–高”和“低–低”的集聚特征。人口和资本要素能有效促进本地区经济增长，但其空间溢出效应截然不同。人口流动表现出强烈的正向溢出，而资本投入则产生“以邻为壑”的竞争效应。土地要素的直接影响为负，表明粗放式扩张模式不利于本地经济增长。要素间的交互作用揭示出更深层次的规律：人口与资本组合能够产生强大的协同效应，当二者同时流入时，会对周边地区产生显著的正向外溢。研究结论强调，通过市场机制与政府治理的协同发力，实现要素从“分散低效”向“一体化高效配置”的跃升，最终夯实区域高质量发展的内生动力。

Abstract: Based on panel data from 159 counties in the Sichuan-Chongqing region from 2013 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects Spatial Dubin Model (SDM) to empirically analyze the spatial effects of urban-rural factor flows, specifically for population, land, and capital on county-level economic development, aiming to reveal their underlying mechanisms and optimize inter-regional factor allocation. The results indicate that county-level economic development exhibits significant spatial dependence, characterized by “high-high” and “low-low” agglomeration patterns. Both population and capital factors effectively promote local economic growth; however, their spatial spillover effects differ markedly. Population movement demonstrates strong positive spillovers, whereas capital investment generates a “beggar-thy-neighbor” competitive effect. The direct impact of land factor is negative, suggesting that extensive land expansion inhibits local economic growth. Furthermore, interactions among factors reveal deeper mechanisms: the combination of population and capital produces a powerful synergistic effect, generating significant positive spillovers to neighboring areas when both factors flow simultaneously. The research conclusion emphasizes that through the synergistic efforts of market mechanisms and government governance, factors can be upgraded from “dispersed and inefficient” to “integrated and efficiently allocated”, ultimately strengthening the intrinsic drive for high-quality regional development.