发达国家利率变动对中国货币政策的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Interest Rate Changes in Developed Countries on China’s Monetary Policy

摘要: 本文以全球货币政策联动深化为背景，聚焦发达国家利率变动对中国货币政策独立性与有效性的传导机制及异质性影响，基于2010Q1~2023Q4季度数据，构建包含家庭、中间品厂商、最终品厂商与货币当局的中美两国开放经济DSGE模型，创新性融合“避险效应–利率–汇率”三维传导渠道与两国互动框架，实证检验发达国家利率冲击的动态影响。研究为中国在美联储利率周期中优化“数量型 + 价格型 + 结构性”货币政策工具箱、增强政策独立性提供理论支撑与实证依据。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of deepening global monetary policy coordination, this study examines the transmission mechanisms and heterogeneous impacts of interest rate changes in developed countries on the independence and effectiveness of China’s monetary policy. Using quarterly data from 2010Q1 to 2023Q4, we construct a two-country open-economy DSGE model encompassing households, intermediate goods producers, final goods producers, and monetary authorities for both China and the United States. The framework innovatively integrates a three-dimensional transmission channel of “safe-haven effect-interest rate-exchange rate” within a two-country interactive setting, empirically testing the dynamic effects of interest rate shocks from developed economies. The research provides theoretical and empirical support for optimizing China’s “quantity-based + price-based + structural” monetary policy toolkit during Federal Reserve interest rate cycles, thereby enhancing policy independence.