适应电网企业中长期需求的科技态势感知模式研究

Research on the Model and Method of Scientific and Technological Situation Awareness Supporting Medium- and Long-Term Technological Development of Power Grid Enterprises

摘要: 在全球科技革命与产业变革加速演进、“双碳”目标纵深推进及新型电力系统规模化建设的背景下，电网企业作为能源转型核心力量与国家战略科技力量重要组成部分，亟需构建系统化科技态势感知能力以支撑中长期科技发展决策。本文基于电力行业特性，融合态势感知、现代情报学理论，界定了电网企业科技态势感知的核心内涵，提炼了系统性、竞合性、全源性、批判性、迭代性五大思维方法，设计了一套科技态势感知流程方法，构建了“要素感知–态势分析–决策布局”三级递进的中长期科技态势分析框架，并从组织、制度、资源三个维度提出落地实施策略，可有效提升电网企业科技决策的前瞻性与科学性，对推动能源电力行业技术创新、支撑新型电力系统建设与科技强国战略实施具有重要意义。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the accelerated evolution of the global scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the in-depth advancement of the “dual-carbon” goals, and the large-scale construction of the new-type power system, power grid enterprises, as a core force in energy transition and an important part of the national strategic scientific and technological forces, urgently need to build a systematic scientific and technological situation awareness capability to support medium- and long-term technological development decision-making. Based on the characteristics of the power industry and integrating the theories of situation awareness and modern information science, this paper defines the core connotation of scientific and technological situation awareness for power grid enterprises, extracts five core thinking methods (systematic thinking, competitive-cooperative thinking, all-source thinking, critical thinking, and iterative thinking), designs a set of process methods for scientific and technological situation awareness, and constructs a three-level progressive medium- and long-term scientific and technological situation analysis framework of “Element Perception-Situation Analysis-Decision Layout”. Furthermore, it puts forward implementation strategies from three dimensions: organization, system, and resources. This research can effectively enhance the forward-looking and scientific nature of technological decision-making for power grid enterprises, and is of great significance for promoting technological innovation in the energy and power industry, supporting the construction of the new-type power system, and implementing the strategy of building a country strong in science and technology.