2013~2021年新疆森林火灾的时空分布特征

The Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Forest Fires in Xinjiang from 2013 to 2021

摘要: 基于2013~2021年新疆森林火灾的官方报表数据，利用相关分析，回归分析等方法分析了新疆森林火灾的时空分布特征，并探究了火灾频次与气候因子之间的关系。结果表明：3~8月的火灾起数较高(占全年85.52%)，4月、3月和7月的火灾起数排全年前三；3~5月(占全年67.15%)以及8~10月(占全年29.96%) 的过火面积较大，其中4月最大，3月次之。春夏两季是森林火灾高发期，2013年以来，森林火灾起数和过火面积均呈下降趋势。北疆林区是森林火灾发生的主要区域。火灾频次主要受干旱指数(−1.8 ≤ CIn ≤ −0.6，轻旱到中旱，干旱频率整体呈下降趋势，且在2017年发生了显著的突变，为“干旱–湿润”)和月最高温(r = 0.532, P < 0.05)影响，森林火灾主要是由人为因素引起的，其中又以农事用火为主。该研究结果可以为新疆森林火灾的监测预警提供一定的数据支持，即当低降水与极端高温(月最高温 ≥ 40℃)时段叠加时，需要加强火灾高发区域的火源监测与管控。

Abstract: Based on the official report data of forest fires in Xinjiang from 2013 to 2021, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of forest fires in Xinjiang using correlation analysis, regression analysis, and other methods, and explored the relationship between fire frequency and climate factors. The results showed that the number of fires from March to August was relatively high (accounting for 85.52% of the total), and the number of fires in April, March, and July ranked among the top three of the year; The burnt area is relatively large from March to May (accounting for 67.15% of the year) and from August to October (accounting for 29.96% of the year), with the largest in April and the second largest in March. Spring and summer are the peak seasons for forest fires, and since 2013, both the number of forest fires and the area burned have shown a downward trend. The forest areas in northern Xinjiang are the main areas where forest fires occur. The frequency of forest fires is mainly affected by the drought index (−1.8 ≤ CIn ≤ −0.6, mild to moderate drought, with an overall decreasing trend in drought frequency and a significant mutation in 2017, known as “dry-wet”) and the highest monthly temperature (r = 0.532, P < 0.05). Forest fires are mainly caused by human factors, with agricultural fire being the main cause. The research results can provide certain data support for the monitoring and early warning of forest fires in Xinjiang, that is, when low precipitation and extreme high temperature (monthly maximum temperature ≥ 40˚C) overlap, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and control of fire sources in high-risk areas.