数字贸易对家庭收入的影响研究——基于跨境电子商务综试区政策的准自然实验

The Impact of Digital Trade on Household Income—A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Cross-Border E-Commerce Pilot Zone Policy

摘要: 本文基于2010~2022年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，以2015~2022年商务部公布的“跨境电子商务综合示范区”政策作为准自然实验，构建多期双重差分模型(Staggered DID)，系统考察数字贸易对家庭收入的动态影响及作用机制。研究发现：参与跨境电子商务综合试验区的地区的劳动力个体，其家庭收入会得到9.7%至12.5%的增加，表明数字贸易的发展会显著提高劳动者的家庭收入。异质性分析发现：数字贸易的发展会显著影响东西部地区劳动者的家庭收入，对中部地区影响不显著。机制检验显示：数字贸易的发展通过增加城市出口值来影响劳动者的家庭收入。

Abstract: Based on the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) data from 2010 to 2022, this paper constructs a multi-period Staggered Difference-in-Differences (Staggered DID) model using the “Cross-border E-commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zone” policy announced by the Ministry of Commerce from 2015 to 2022 as a quasi-natural experiment to systematically examine the dynamic impact and mechanism of digital trade on household income. The study finds that labor individuals in regions participating in cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones experience an increase in household income of 9.7% to 12.5%, indicating that the development of digital trade significantly boosts household income for workers. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the development of digital trade significantly affects household income for workers in eastern and western regions, but not in central regions. Mechanism testing shows that the development of digital trade influences household income for workers by increasing urban export values.