“快变量”与“慢思考”：RCEP对中国–东盟工业机器人贸易的动态效应研究

“Fast Variables” and “Slow Thinking”: A Study on the Dynamic Effects of RCEP on China-ASEAN Industrial Robot Trade

摘要: 本文以《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)全面生效为背景，聚焦中国对东盟工业机器人出口的贸易效应，构建双向固定效应模型(TWFE)进行实证检验。基于2014~2024年东盟十国面板数据，研究发现：(1) RCEP对中国工业机器人出口呈现正向促进趋势，但因政策时滞性未通过统计显著性检验，其效应需通过产业链协同逐步释放；(2) 工业化水平是出口的核心驱动力，越南、泰国等高工业化国家贡献的出口增量占比大；(3) RCEP触发贸易转移效应，中国在越南、泰国市场份额显著提升，挤压德日传统优势；(4) 地理距离约束因RCEP通关便利化而弱化，远距离国家出口增速反超近距离国家。本文研究表明，工业机器人作为高技术资本品，采购决策周期长(慢思考)，RCEP (快变量)对其贸易影响存在2~3年滞后期，政策评估需建立长周期观察窗口。据此建议政府深化原产地规则落地、实施差异化市场培育策略，企业布局本地化生产与场景化产品开发。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the full implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), this article focuses on the trade effects of China’s exports of industrial robots to ASEAN, and constructs a two-way fixed effects model (TWFE) for empirical testing. Based on the panel data of the ten ASEAN countries from 2014 to 2024, the study found that: (1) RCEP has shown a positive promotion trend for China’s industrial robot exports, but its effect needs to be gradually released through industrial chain coordination due to policy lag, which did not pass statistical significance tests; (2) The level of industrialization is the core driving force for exports, with high industrialized countries such as Vietnam and Thailand contributing a large proportion of export growth; (3) RCEP triggers trade transfer effects, significantly increasing China’s market share in Vietnam and Thailand, squeezing the traditional advantages of Germany and Japan; (4) The geographical distance constraint has been weakened due to the facilitation of RCEP customs clearance, and the export growth rate of distant countries has surpassed that of nearby countries. This study shows that industrial robots, as high-tech capital goods, have a long procurement decision-making cycle (slow thinking), and RCEP (fast variable) has a 2~3-year lag in its trade impact. Policy evaluation requires the establishment of a long-term observation window. Based on this, it is suggested that the government deepen the implementation of rules of origin, implement differentiated market cultivation strategies, and enable enterprises to lay out localized production and scenario-based product development.