双碳背景下能源结构现状与火电发展前景

Current Status of Energy Structure and Development Prospects of Thermal Power under the Dual Carbon Goals

摘要: 2020年“双碳目标”目标：力争于2030年前达到碳排放峰值，并努力争取在2060年前实现碳中和的提出，让中国能源结构发生了历史性的变革。本文结合当前太阳能发电、风力发电及火力发电等三种主要的发电技术现状、发展特点及存在的问题，系统性分析了现行政策下的能源结构变化趋势。研究表明，截至2024年底，全国发电装机容量达3348.62 GW，其中太阳能、风能等新能源装机容量迅速增长，太阳能发电新增装机容量278 GW，同比增加28.18%，占到全国新增总装机容量的82.6%。本文详细介绍了关于太阳能发电、陆上风电与海上风电的技术发展。同时，针对新能源发电存在的前期投资成本高、装机地域限制大、不能稳定持续电力供应等问题深入分析探讨。并在此基础上，重点论述了火力发电在新能源时代的战略地位，从电力供应的主力军转变为能源保障压舱石，从单一发电企业发展为综合能源供应商；充分激发火力发电长流程技术路线潜力，积极开发各个流程环节工业副产品，结合周围企业工业需求，打造属于自己的“十供五回”综合能源服务模式，为“双碳”目标下的火电行业的可持续发展提供了参考。

Abstract: The proposal of China’s dual-carbon goals in 2020—peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060—has initiated a historic transformation in the nation’s energy structure. This paper systematically analyzes trends in energy structure evolution under current policies, integrating the status quo, developmental characteristics, and existing challenges of three primary power generation technologies: solar, wind, and thermal power. Research indicates that, by the end of 2024, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide reached 3348.62 GW. Within this, the installed capacity of new energy sources, such as solar and wind power, exhibited rapid growth. Specifically, newly added solar power capacity amounted to 278 GW, a year-on-year increase of 28.18%, accounting for 82.6% of the total newly installed capacity nationwide. This study elaborates on technological advancements in solar power generation, onshore wind power, and offshore wind power. It also provides an in-depth analysis of issues associated with new energy power generation, including high initial investment costs, significant geographical constraints on installation, and the challenges in ensuring stable and continuous electricity supply. On this basis, the paper emphasizes the strategic role of thermal power in the new energy era, highlighting its evolution from a primary power supplier to a cornerstone of energy security, and the transformation of thermal power enterprises from singular electricity producers into comprehensive energy providers. By fully leveraging the potential of the long-process technological pathway inherent in thermal power, actively developing industrial by-products at various stages of the process, and integrating with the industrial demands of surrounding enterprises, the industry can establish its own “Ten Supplies and Five Recycles” comprehensive energy service model. This offers a valuable reference for the sustainable development of the thermal power sector under the dual-carbon objectives.