农业新质生产力对产业结构升级的影响——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of New-Quality Agricultural Productivity on Industrial Structure Upgrading—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

摘要: 在我国经济迈向高质量发展的背景下，培育新质生产力已成为推动产业结构优化升级的重要途径。农业作为国民经济的重要基础产业，其新质生产力发展对产业结构演进具有重要影响。基于此，本文以2011~2021年中国30个省级地区的面板数据为研究样本，从生产力三要素出发，融合科技创新、数字化发展和绿色转型等新质特征，构建农业新质生产力评价指标体系，系统考察农业新质生产力对产业结构升级的影响。研究采用固定效应模型进行基准回归，并通过工具变量法和多种稳健性检验处理潜在内生性问题。实证结果表明，农业新质生产力对产业结构升级具有显著的正向促进作用，该结论在不同模型设定和样本处理方式下均保持稳健。进一步分析发现，在控制内生性问题后，农业新质生产力对产业结构升级的促进效应依然显著。本文的研究结论为推动农业高质量发展和优化产业结构提供了经验证据与政策启示。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of China’s economy shifting toward high-quality development, fostering new-quality productivity has become an important pathway for promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. As an important foundational industry of the national economy, the development of new-quality agricultural productivity has a significant impact on the evolution of the industrial structure. Accordingly, this paper uses panel data from 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2021 as the research sample. Starting from the three elements of productivity, and integrating new-quality characteristics such as technological innovation, digital development, and green transformation, an evaluation index system for new-quality agricultural productivity is constructed to systematically examine its impact on industrial structure upgrading. The study employs a fixed-effects model for benchmark regression and addresses potential endogeneity issues through the instrumental variable method and multiple robustness checks. The empirical results show that new-quality agricultural productivity has a significant positive effect on industrial structure upgrading, and this conclusion remains robust under different model specifications and sample treatment methods. Further analysis finds that after controlling for endogeneity, the promoting effect of new-quality agricultural productivity on industrial structure upgrading remains significant. The research conclusions of this paper provide empirical evidence and policy implications for promoting high-quality agricultural development and optimizing the industrial structure.