我国省域数字普惠金融对农村电商发展的影响

The Impact of Provincial Digital Inclusive Finance on the Development of Rural E-Commerce in China

摘要: 随着数字经济加速渗透和乡村振兴战略深入推进，农村电商已经成为推动乡村产业振兴的关键力量。本文基于2011年至2024年中国30个省份的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型和面板门槛模型，分析数字普惠金融对农村电商发展的影响。结果显示，数字普惠金融各维度持续增长且协同改善，对农村电商发展产生了显著而稳定的正向促进作用；该影响存在区域异质性，呈现“东北 > 中部 > 西部 > 东部”的梯度特征，并且具有单门槛效应，即边际促进作用随着自身发展水平提高而逐渐减弱。本文为优化区域金融资源配置、精准赋能农村电商提质增效、助力乡村振兴提供了实证参考。

Abstract: With the accelerated penetration of the digital economy and the in-depth advancement of the rural revitalization strategy, rural e-commerce has evolved into a pivotal force driving the industrial revitalization of rural areas. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2024, this paper employs the two-way fixed effects model and the panel threshold model to empirically analyze the impact of digital inclusive finance on the development of rural e-commerce. The results indicate that all dimensions of digital inclusive finance have maintained steady growth with coordinated improvement, exerting a significant and robust positive effect on the development of rural e-commerce. Moreover, this impact exhibits pronounced regional heterogeneity, displaying a gradient pattern of “Northeast China > Central China > Western China > Eastern China”. It also features a single threshold effect, meaning that the marginal promotional effect gradually diminishes as the development level of digital inclusive finance itself advances. This paper provides empirical evidence for optimizing the regional allocation of financial resources, accurately empowering rural e-commerce to achieve quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, and facilitating the advancement of rural revitalization.