基于AHP-模糊综合评价的欧盟ESPR实施背景下中国创意小家电跨境电商供应链风险评价研究

Research on the Risk Evaluation of Cross-Border E-Commerce Supply Chain of China’s Creative Small Household Appliances under the Background of EU ESPR Implementation Based on AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

摘要: 随着可持续发展与循环经济转型逐渐成为全球共识，欧盟相继提出《生态设计指令》《绿色新政》《循环经济行动计划》，并于2024年正式发布《可持续产品生态设计法规》(ESPR)以建设“欧洲绿色新政”框架。该政策对以“小批量、快迭代”为特征的创意小家电行业而言，在产品设计、材料选择、包装处理及能源利用等环节提出了更为严格的要求，同时也对以出口欧盟为主的跨境电商产业构成了前所未有的挑战，其供应链风险结构正经历根本性重塑。因此，本文引入AHP‑模糊综合评价模型，以权重确定和综合模糊评估的方式揭示 ESPR 实施背景下中国创意小家电跨境电商出口欧盟供应链的风险演化特征，并提出相应管理建议。

Abstract: As sustainable development and the transition to a circular economy have gradually become a global consensus, the European Union has successively proposed Ecodesign Directive, European Green Deal, and Circular Economy Action Plan, and officially released Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) in 2024 to build the framework of the “European Green Deal”. This policy has imposed stricter requirements on the creative small household appliances industry, which is characterized by “small batch and fast iteration”, in aspects such as product design, material selection, packaging treatment, and energy utilization. At the same time, it has posed unprecedented challenges to the cross-border e-commerce industry, mainly exporting to the EU, and its supply chain risk structure is undergoing a fundamental reshaping. Therefore, this paper applies the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to assess supply chain risks. Specifically, it determines risk weights and performs a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation to reveal the risk evolution characteristics of China’s creative small household appliance exports to the EU under the ESPR, subsequently providing management recommendations.