试点碳交易市场的碳减排效应研究

Study on the Carbon Emission Reduction Effects of Pilot Carbon Trading Markets

摘要: 碳交易作为市场化环境规制工具，是中国落实“双碳”战略目标的关键政策抓手，亦是推动区域低碳转型的重大制度创新。本文基于2005~2022年中国30个省市面板数据，采用多时点双重差分(DID)模型，系统实证检验试点碳交易市场的碳减排效应及其作用机理。研究发现，试点碳交易市场显著降低了地区二氧化碳排放量。机制分析显示，试点碳交易市场主要通过三条路径发挥减排效应：其一，通过总量控制效应约束能源消费规模；其二，通过结构优化效应驱动能源消费低碳化转型，降低高碳能源使用；其三，通过创新激励效应鼓励绿色技术创新。本研究厘清了试点碳交易市场的减排机制与政策有效性，为全国碳排放权交易市场建设提供了理论支撑与实践参考。

Abstract: As a market-oriented environmental regulatory tool, carbon trading serves as a key policy lever for China to achieve its “dual carbon” strategic goals and constitutes a major institutional innovation for advancing regional low-carbon transition. Based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities from 2005 to 2022, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to systematically and empirically examine the carbon emission reduction effects and underlying mechanisms of pilot carbon trading markets. The results indicate that pilot carbon trading markets have significantly reduced regional carbon dioxide emissions. Mechanism analysis reveals that carbon trading markets achieve emission reduction through three pathways: first, it constrains the scale of energy consumption through the total amount control effect; second, it drives the low-carbon transition of energy consumption and reduces the use of high-carbon energy sources through the structural optimization effect; third, it encourages green technology innovation through the innovation incentive effect. This research clarifies the emission reduction mechanisms and policy effectiveness of pilot carbon trading markets, providing theoretical support and practical reference for the construction of the national carbon emission trading market.