数字贸易对我国产业链韧性的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Trade on the Resilience of China’s Industrial Chain

摘要: 近年来，我国产业发展综合实力稳步提升，但在逐渐紧张的国际局势背景下，国际环境错综复杂，西方国家对我国技术遏制与产业打压升级，面对可能存在“卡链”“堵链”的风险，全球产业链开始加速调整、完善、重构。数字贸易作为一种随着数字经济的发展而产生的新的贸易形式，数字贸易利用互联网、大数据等工具，能够降低信息不对称程度、减少贸易成本，有效减少中间环节，提高贸易效率，从而对提升产业链韧性起到促进作用。为此，本文基于2010年~2021年中国259个地级市作为初始研究样本，分析数字贸易对产业链韧性的影响研究。研究发现：(1) 数字贸易发展显著提升了产业链韧性水平，在经过一系列稳健性检验后，该结论依然成立。(2) 数字贸易通过提升经济集聚水平、提高人力资本水平、提高运输水平来提升产业链韧性。(3) 通过异质性分析可知，一线城市、创新型城市和数字基础设施水平高城市的数字贸易对增强产业链韧性的促进作用更显著。

Abstract: In recent years, the comprehensive strength of China’s industrial development has steadily improved. However, against the backdrop of an increasingly tense international situation, the global environment is complex, and Western countries are continuously escalating their containment of China’s technology and suppression of its industries. Facing potential risks of “supply chain blockages” or “chain disruptions,” the global industrial chain is beginning to accelerate adjustments, improvements, and restructuring. As a new form of trade that emerged with the development of the digital economy, digital trade utilizes the Internet, big data and other tools to reduce information asymmetry, lower trade costs, effectively reduce intermediate links and enhance trade efficiency, thereby promoting the resilience of the industrial chain. Therefore, this paper takes 259 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2021 as the initial research sample to analyze the impact of digital trade on the resilience of the industrial chain. The research findings are as follows: (1) The development of digital trade significantly enhances the resilience of the industrial chain. After a series of robustness tests, this conclusion still holds. (2) Digital trade enhances the resilience of the industrial chain by improving the level of economic agglomeration, the level of human capital and the level of transportation. (3) Through heterogeneity analysis, it is found that digital trade in first-tier cities, innovative cities and cities with high levels of digital infrastructure has a more significant promoting effect on enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain.