古镇旅游开发对企业生存风险的影响研究
Study on Impact of Ancient Town Tourism Development on Enterprise Survival Risk
摘要: 本研究基于西塘古镇1997~2024年全量企业数据，考察旅游开发对目的地企业生存风险的影响。研究发现：旅游开发整体上降低企业风险(保护效应)，且该效应在政府主导阶段更显著。机制上，旅游开发同时通过激发区域企业活力加剧竞争，形成部分抵消直接保护效应的“遮掩效应”。异质性分析显示，该保护作用对小微企业、非旅游企业及景区外企业较弱。本研究揭示了旅游开发影响企业生存的复合机制与制度调节作用，为兼顾活力与包容性的旅游规划提供依据。
Abstract: This study examines the impact of tourism development on the survival risk of destination enterprises using comprehensive business registration data from Xitang Ancient Town (1997~2024). Results show that tourism development overall reduces enterprise risk (a protective effect), which is more pronounced during government-led stages. Mechanistically, while directly protective, tourism development also intensifies regional competition by stimulating overall business vitality, creating a “masking effect” that partially offsets the direct benefit. Heterogeneity analysis reveals weaker protection for micro-enterprises, non-tourism businesses, and enterprises outside the core scenic area. This study reveals the complex mechanisms through which tourism development impacts enterprise survival and the role of institutional regulation, providing a basis for tourism planning that balances dynamism and inclusivity.
文章引用：邱洁威, 段婷. 古镇旅游开发对企业生存风险的影响研究[J]. 世界经济探索, 2026, 15(1): 81-96. https://doi.org/10.12677/wer.2026.151010

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