数字普惠金融对经济高质量发展的影响研究——基于新质生产力的门槛效应分析

Study on Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on High-Quality Economic Development—An Analysis of Threshold Effects Based on New-Quality Productive Forces

摘要: 数字普惠金融作为“十五五”时期金融强国建设的重要着力点，对促进经济高质量发展具有关键作用。本文基于2012~2022年我国31个省份面板数据，通过双向固定效应模型对数字普惠金融与经济高质量发展的关联性进行了验证。研究结果显示，数字普惠金融及其服务覆盖范围对于经济高质量发展有着明显的正向影响。调节效应检验显示，数据要素化水平对上述作用存在正向调节。异质性结果表明，该促进效应在数字普惠金融发展水平较高地区和城镇化水平较高地区更为突出。进一步的门槛回归发现，当新的生产力水平超过第一个门槛值时，数字普惠金融及其服务覆盖范围、业务使用强度与数字化渗透水平的促进效果更为突出。

Abstract: Digital inclusive finance, as a key policy focus in building a strong financial system during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, plays an important role in promoting high-quality economic development. Using panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, this paper applies a two-way fixed-effects model to test the association between digital inclusive finance and high-quality economic development. The results indicate that digital inclusive finance and its service coverage have a statistically significant positive effect on high-quality economic development. Moderation analysis further shows that a higher level of data factorization strengthens this relationship. Heterogeneity results suggest that the positive effect is more pronounced in regions with more developed digital inclusive finance and in provinces with higher urbanization rates. In addition, threshold regressions reveal that once the level of new-quality productive forces surpasses the first threshold, the promoting effects of digital inclusive finance—together with its service coverage, usage intensity, and digital penetration—become stronger.