气象干旱变化及其对玉米气候产量的影响研究——以蒙东四盟市为例

Study on Meteorological Drought Variations and Their Impact on Maize Climate Yields—A Case Study of Four Prefecture-Level Cities in Eastern Inner Mongolia

摘要: 玉米是受气候变化影响最为显著的作物之一，这一特性在生态脆弱的内蒙古自治区东部地区(即蒙东地区)表现得尤为突出。目前针对该区域干旱变化对玉米产量的影响等相关研究尚不充分。本研究基于2001~2020年多时间尺度标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI)表征干旱特征，利用中国玉米空间分布数据集(The China Crop Dataset-Maize, CCD-Maize)结合统计年鉴数据获取了各旗县玉米单产，随后使用5年滑动平均法提取气候产量，并分析了玉米生长季气候产量与干旱的相关性。结果显示：(1) 蒙东地区干旱持续时间呈西长东短(4~8个月)，强度由北向南递减(0.74~1.08)，频率整体表现为由中部向两端递增(17%~46%)。(2) 5年滑动平均法分离得到的气候产量标准差平均值为0.90，序列在0值附近呈现出平稳的年际波动特征，表明该方法能够合理分离出玉米的气候产量。(3) 根据Pearson相关分析结果，播种期相关系数范围为−0.280~0.611，花丝期为−0.191~0.585，成熟期为−0.185~0.528，而全生育期相关性整体偏弱。综合来看，花丝期和成熟期的干湿状况对产量影响更为显著。

Abstract: Corn is one of the crops most significantly affected by climate change, a characteristic that is particularly pronounced in the ecologically fragile eastern region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (referred to as Eastern Mongolia). Current research on the impact of drought changes on corn yields in this area remains insufficient. This study characterizes drought using the multi-timescale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2020. It combines the China Crop Dataset-Maize (CCD-Maize) with statistical yearbook data to obtain corn yield per unit area across counties and banners. Subsequently, a five-year moving average method is applied to extract climate yield, followed by an analysis of the correlation between corn growing season climate yield and drought. CCD-Maize) and statistical yearbook data to obtain maize yield per unit area for each county. A five-year moving average method was then applied to extract climate-yield relationships, and the correlation between climate yield during the maize growing season and drought was analyzed. Results indicate: (1) Drought duration in eastern Inner Mongolia exhibits westward prolongation and eastward shortening (4~8 months), with intensity decreasing from north to south (0.74~1.08). Drought frequency generally increases from the central region toward both ends (17%~46%). (2) The five-year moving average method yielded a mean climate yield standard deviation of 0.90. The series exhibited stable interannual fluctuations around zero, indicating this method effectively isolates corn’s climate yield. (3) Pearson correlation analysis revealed the following ranges—Sowing period: −0.280 to 0.611; Silking stage: −0.191 to 0.585; Maturity stage: −0.185 to 0.528. Overall, correlations during the entire growth period were relatively weak. Comprehensively, moisture conditions during the silking and maturity stages exerted a more significant influence on yield.