河北省县域人口收缩的空间关联及影响因素研究

Spatial Correlation and Influencing Factors of County-Level Population Shrinkage in Hebei Province

摘要: 准确把握河北省县域人口收缩，为破解区域发展失衡、推动“燕赵宜居县城”建设有重要意义。基于此，以河北省为研究对象，以县作为研究单元，采用数理统计、GIS空间分析等方法，分析2010~2020年间河北省县域人口收缩的时空演变特征，并用定量方法探讨了影响县域人口收缩的因素。结果表明：(1) 在2010至2020年间，河北省县域的人口收缩现象已较为普遍，收缩县域的数量显著增多，收缩态势也明显加剧；(2) 人口收缩区在2010~2015年间数量较少，并呈现零星分散分布的特点，具有随机性；在2015~2020年间，人口收缩区迅速扩张，分布范围广，在全省各地区内均有所显现，占比超过90%；(3) 从相关分析的结果来看，经济因素对河北省县域人口收缩变化有着重要的影响，其中二产占比、人均GDP等因素对河北省县域人口收缩区的形成影响显著。

Abstract: Accurately grasping the population shrinkage in counties of Hebei Province is of great significance for addressing the imbalance in regional development and promoting the construction of “livable counties in Yanzhao”. In consideration of this, Hebei Province is used as a case study in this research and counties as a unit of study. Utilizing mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis techniques, this study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of population shrinkage in county-level regions in Hebei Province from 2010 to 2020, and quantitatively explore its influencing factors. The research results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the phenomenon of population contraction in counties in Hebei Province has become more common, with a significant inc_rease in the number of contracting counties and a significant intensification of the degree of contraction in counties; (2) In the period from 2010 to 2015, the number of population contraction areas was relatively small, showing the characteristics of scattered distribution and randomness. During the period from 2015 to 2020,population contraction areas rapidly expanded and had a wide distribution range, showing signs in all regions of the province, accounting for over 90%; (3) Based on the results of correlation analysis, the changes in population shrinkage in Hebei’s county-level areas are heavily influenced by economic factors, with the proportion of secondary industry and per capita GDP being particularly influential in shaping the formation of population contraction areas in Hebei’s counties.