淮河流域非一致性序列的水文频率计算

Hydrological Frequency Calculation of Non-Stationary Series in the Huaihe River Basin

摘要: 气候变化和人类活动对水文循环过程造成了影响，一定程度改变了水文序列的一致性。因此在变化环境下采用非一致性水文序列频率计算方法来描述水文序列更具合理性。本文选取淮河干流大坡岭站和鲁台子站1956~2010年的最大洪峰序列为研究对象，采用多种变异诊断方法对序列进行趋势性诊断和跳跃性诊断。然后，根据变异诊断结果并基于还原途径对序列进行频率计算。结果表明：大坡岭站和鲁台子站的年最大洪峰序列分别于1981和2001年发生跳跃变异，同时大坡岭站的洪峰流量序列在未来条件下存在一定程度的减少，在丰水年、平水年、枯水年的流量减少幅度为2.22%~18.51%、18.51%~19.48%、19.48%~97.27%。中游鲁台子站的洪峰流量序列在未来条件下存在一定程度的增加，在丰水年、平水年、枯水年的流量增加幅度为4.43%~27.76%、27.76%~45.90%、45.90%~473.51%。考虑水文变异的情况，用未来条件下的频率计算结果推算设计值能够为淮河流域的规划设计和水资源管理提供更为科学的基础。

Abstract: The climate changes and human activities have caused great influences on the process of the hydrological cycle and destroyed the consistency of hydrological series. In this condition, doing hydrological frequency calculation based on the analysis method of non-stationary series will be more reasonable. This paper selects the annual maximum flood peak series from 1956-2010 of Da Po Ling and Lu Tai Zi station in Huaihe main stream to analyze. Several methods are used to do trend diagnosis and jumping diagnosis. The result shows that the variation of Da Po Ling and Lu Tai Zi series which belongs to jumping type occurs in 1981 and 2001. In addition, the annual maximum flood peak in Da Po Ling station has decreased under the future condition and the flow reductions in flood season, normal season, dry season are respectively 2.22% - 18.51%, 18.51% - 19.48%, 19.48% - 97.27%; the annual maximum flood peak in Lu Tai Zi station has increased and the flow increases in flood season, normal season, dry season are respectively 4.43% - 27.76%, 27.76% - 45.90%, 45.90% - 473.51%. Considering the hydrological variation and using the results under the future condition to calculate the design value can provide a scientific basis for planning and management of water resources in the Huaihe River basin.