多源数据视角下黄河流域城市群生态环境与经济高质量发展耦合协调时空演变及驱动机制

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Coupling Coordination between Environment and High-Quality Economic Development in Yellow River Basin City Clusters from a Multi-Source Data

摘要: 黄河流域作为中国重要的生态屏障和经济地带，面临着区域发展不平衡、生态环境脆弱等挑战。本文旨在探究流域城市群生态与经济系统协同发展关系及其时空演变的驱动机制。基于2011~2023年黄河流域主要城市的面板数据，综合运用夜光遥感、NDVI植被指数、地形高程等多源空间数据和传统统计数据构建综合评价指标体系，采用耦合协调度模型、莫兰指数及地理探测器模型进行分析。研究结果表明：(1) 时序上，黄河流域整体生态经济耦合协调度呈现稳步上升趋势，但多数城市仍处于濒临失调向勉强协调的过渡阶段。(2) 空间分布上，耦合协调度呈现下游大于中游大于上游的阶梯状特征，且全局莫兰指数显示城市协调水平存在显著的正向空间自相关性。(3) 驱动机制上，地理探测器结果显示，地方政府财力和经济活力是影响耦合协调度空间分异的主导因素，人口负荷和自然约束则是重要的自然与社会约束条件。(4) 交互作用探测表明，任意双因子的交互作用均显著强于单因子作用，特别是社会经济要素与自然地理条件的协同优化对提升区域整体协调水平具有关键作用。本研究解释了多重约束下黄河流域生态经济协同发展的复杂机制，能够为制定差异化的区域发展策略提供科学依据。

Abstract: As a vital ecological barrier and economic zone in China, the Yellow River Basin faces challenges including regional development imbalances and ecosystem fragility. This study investigates the synergistic relationship between ecological and economic systems in city cluster within the basin, examining the spatiotemporal evolution and its driving forces. Using panel data from major basin cities (2011~2023), we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system integrating multi-source data with traditional statistics, including nighttime light remote sensing, NDVI vegetation indices, and terrain elevation. Analyses employed coupling coordination degree models, Moran’s I index, and geographic detector models. Key findings indicate: (1) Temporally, the basin’s overall eco-economic CCD shows steady improvement, though most cities remain transitional between near-disharmony and basic coordination. (2) Spatially, CCD exhibits a downstream > middle > upstream gradient, with global Moran’s I confirming significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (3) Geodetector results identify local fiscal capacity and economic vitality as primary drivers of CCD variation, while population pressure and natural constraints are key limiting factors. (4) Interaction detection reveals that synergistic effects between any two factors consistently exceed their individual impacts. This demonstrates that coordinated optimization of socioeconomic elements and natural geographic conditions is particularly crucial for enhancing regional coordination. Our study elucidates the complex mechanisms driving eco-economic synergy in the Yellow River Basin amid multiple constraints, providing a scientific basis for formulating differentiated regional development strategies.