基于PSR模型的长江中游城市群土地生态安全评价及时空演化分析

Land Ecological Security Evaluation and Spatio-Temporal Evolution Analysis of the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on the PSR Model

摘要: 土地生态安全评价是对区域土地生态系统可持续性判断的重要方法，长江中游城市群土地生态保护与高质量发展对我国生态系统安全、经济发展和社会稳定具有重要意义。本研究使用2013~2022年长江中游城市群28个地级市的数据，基于PSR模型构建了长江中游城市群土地生态安全评价指标体系，使用熵权法对土地生态安全指数进行测算，并分析其时空变化特征。研究结果表明：(1) 从时间变化来看，2013~2022年长江中游城市群土地生态安全指数呈波动上升态势，三大子城市群呈现显著区域梯度特征，其中环鄱阳湖城市群始终处于领先地位。(2) 空间变化上，研究区域南部土地生态安全等级长期保持相对较高水平，中部城市整体提升较大，北部城市土地生态安全相对薄弱。研究结论：长江中游城市群土地生态安全水平整体不断提高，但空间分布存在不均，应更加注重协调发展。

Abstract: Land ecological security assessment is an important method for judging the sustainability of regional land ecosystems. The land ecological protection and high-quality development of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are of great significance to China’s ecosystem security, economic development and social stability. This study utilized the data of 28 prefecture-level cities in the Central Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration from 2013 to 2022. Based on the PSR model, an evaluation index system for land ecological security in the Central Yangtze River urban agglomeration was constructed. The entropy weight method was used to calculate the land ecological security index, and its spatio-temporal variation characteristics were analyzed. The research results show that: (1) In terms of time changes, the land ecological security index of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has shown a fluctuating upward trend from 2013 to 2022. The three sub-urban agglomerations present significant regional gradient characteristics, among which the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake has always been in a leading position. (2) In terms of spatial changes, the ecological security level of the land in the southern part of the study area has remained relatively high for a long time, the overall improvement in the central cities has been significant, while the ecological security of the land in the northern cities is relatively weak. Research conclusion: The overall level of land ecological security in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has been continuously improving, but the spatial distribution is uneven. Therefore, more emphasis is placed on coordinated development.