就业质量、社会支持与育龄人群生育意愿

Employment Quality, Social Support, and Fertility Intentions among the Childbearing-Age Population

摘要: 利用中国家庭追踪调查数据，运用Probit模型，探究就业质量、社会支持与育龄人群生育意愿的关系。研究发现：就业质量与育龄人群生育意愿显著正相关，且该结论经稳健性与内生性检验后依然成立；托幼问题削弱这一正向关系，而政府信任与住房安居则强化该关系；就业质量的影响存在群体异质性，对非城乡流动人口和财富存量较低家庭的作用更为显著，对城乡流动人口和高财富家庭影响不显著。研究揭示，提升就业质量需结合托育服务完善、政府公信力增强与住房保障优化，并针对不同群体实施精准支持，为释放生育潜力提供政策参考。

Abstract: This study employs data from the China Family Panel Studies and a Probit model to examine the relationship between employment quality, social support, and fertility intentions among the childbearing-age population. The results show that higher employment quality significantly increases fertility intentions, a finding robust to tests for endogeneity. Childcare challenges weaken this positive effect, whereas trust in government and housing security strengthen it. The influence of employment quality is more pronounced among non-migrant and lower-wealth households, with no significant effect observed for migrants and higher-wealth households. The study suggests that improving fertility intentions requires not only enhancing employment quality but also addressing childcare needs, increasing government credibility, and ensuring housing security, with tailored policies for different groups.