基于Lotka-Volterra模型的社交电商平台竞争演化研究

Research on the Competition Evolution of Social E-Commerce Platforms Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model

摘要: 随着社交电商的快速发展，平台间的竞争日趋激烈。本文基于生态学中的Lotka-Volterra竞争模型，构建了社交电商平台用户规模演化的微分方程模型。通过引入平台内容质量因子(q)、用户粘性系数(μ)和跨平台导流率(ρ)等参数，将社交电商平台的核心竞争要素量化纳入模型分析。利用MATLAB进行数值模拟，不仅分析了基础参数(市场容量K、自然增长率r)的影响，更深入研究了不同竞争策略单独及组合使用时的效果。研究结果表明：内容质量优化可使平台用户承载量提升；用户粘性增强能有效抵御竞争对手侵蚀；跨平台导流策略在竞争初期效果显著；组合策略相比单一策略，平台最终用户规模提升明显。本研究为社交电商平台的竞争战略制定提供了系统的理论框架和量化决策工具。

Abstract: With the rapid development of social e-commerce, competition among platforms has become increasingly intense. Based on the Lotka-Volterra competition model from ecology, this paper constructs a differential equation model for the evolution of user scale on social e-commerce platforms. By introducing parameters such as platform content quality factor (q), user stickiness coefficient (μ), and cross-platform traffic diversion rate (ρ), the core competitive elements of social e-commerce platforms are quantified and incorporated into the model analysis. Numerical simulations are conducted using MATLAB to analyze not only the impact of basic parameters (market capacity K, natural growth rate r) but also the effects of different competitive strategies when used individually and in combination. The research results indicate that content quality optimization can significantly increase the platform’s user carrying capacity; enhanced user stickiness effectively resists erosion by competitors; cross-platform traffic diversion strategies are particularly effective in the early stages of competition; and combined strategies lead to a substantial improvement in the platform’s final user scale compared to single strategies. This study provides a systematic theoretical framework and quantitative decision-making tool for the formulation of competitive strategies on social e-commerce platforms.