2009~2010年新疆人工增水效果评价

The Effect Evaluation of Weather Modification in the Range of 2009-2010 Years in Xinjiang

摘要: 以1981~2008年作为新疆人工增水作业对比期，采用线性拟合方法扣除年降水量的气候增加趋势，采用时间平均方法消除降水量的年际震荡，对2009~2010年新疆人工增水作业效果进行评估。分析表明，2年内新疆实现了飞机、火箭、高炮、烟炉立体联合作业，作业范围和强度及频次成倍增加，累计播撒碘化银797.9 kg。扣除降水量的气候增加趋势后，2009~2010年相对1981~2008年，作业影响区的北疆年平均降水量增加9%，天山山区增加4%，南疆增加8%。2009年相对2008年，呼图壁河径流量增加16%，乌鲁木齐河增加31%。2009~2010年相对2006~2008年，新疆平均最大植被高盖度、低盖度、总盖度分别增加0.57%、0.98%、1.22%。2009~2010年相对1981~2008年，北疆和天山山区湿润程度加大，干旱状况明显好转，南疆与历史情况持平。

Abstract: The effect evaluation of Weather modification in the range of 2009 to 2010 years in Xinjiang was compared with that in the range of 1981 to 2008 years using linear fitting method. The impact of the annual precipitation increase trend was taken off and the fluctuation of the annual precipitation was eliminated using the time average method. The analytical result showed that the combined operations of the aircraft, rockets, artillery and furnace smoke were successfully implemented within 2 years, the cumulative seeding of silver iodide was 797.9 kg and scope of work, working intensity and its frequency increased doubly. After taking off the increasing trend of weather for precipitation, the average annual precipitation in North Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountainous and the South Xinjiang, which were affected by the combined operations, increased respectively 9%, 4% and 8% in the range of 2009 to 2010 years compared with that in the range of 1981 to 2008 years. Compared with the year 2008, the volume of runoff in Hutubi River and in Urumqi River in 2009 increased by 16% and 31%, respectively. Compared with that in the range of 2006 to 2008 years, the average maximum vegetation high coverage rate, low coverage rate, and total coverage rate of Xinjiang in the range of 2009- 2010 years were increased respectively by 0.57%, 0.98% and 1.22%. If compared that in the range of 1981 to 2008 years, the air moist degree in North Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountainous was increased and the drought situation was improved obviously while the situation in the South Xinjiang was unchanged.