厄瓜多尔地震柱的构造与地震和火山的预测研究

The Structure of Ecuador Seismic Cone and the Prediction Research of Earthquakes and Volcanoes

摘要: 按照地震地热说关于壳内强震与火山预测的方法，本文采用北加利福利亚地震数据中心的ANSS地震目录，Smithsonian Institution的GVP火山资料，对厄瓜多尔地震柱的地震活动与地震柱构造进行广泛研究，初步认为研究区内的地震柱构造结构表现为一种左手的手型结构，深源地震活动的韵律致使手型结构一张一弛，从而控制着地震柱的影响区内壳内强震与火山活动，火山喷发释放储能层的大量热能，壳内强震则力图疏通南美洲西北部的海沟，以保持手型结构活动的自由度。由于深源地震活动比地震柱构造影响区内的活动提前若干年，有足够的时间让人们做好心理准备。工作做好了，该地震柱内壳内强震与火山活动的预测便是可能的。厄瓜多尔地震柱构造虽然没有高精度的地震目录，但是构造结构单一，强震与火山活动的目标明确，也有某些成功预测的经验，因而具有优越的地震研究环境，值得人们关注。

Abstract: According to the Seismo-Geothermics theory about methods of intracrustal strong earthquake and volcano prediction, the ANSS earthquake catalogue from the Northern California earthquake data center and the GVP volcano data from the Smithsonian Institution, and extensive study of the seismic activities and the seismic cone structure in the Ecuador seismic cone, the author of this paper preliminarily thinks that the Ecuador seismic cone represents a left-hand structure, which the alternate tension with relaxation caused by deep seismic activity rhythm controls the intracrustal strong earthquakes and volcano activities in the earthquake affected area of the seismic cone. The volcano activities release the large heat energy of heat storage layer and the intracrustal strong earthquakes are trying to clear the trench in northwestern South America to keep the freedom of activity of hand type structure. Because deep seismic activity is several years earlier than the intracrustal earthquake activities of cone affected area, there is enough time for people to prepare, which allows the prediction of strong earthquake and volcanic activity in the crust in the seismic cone possible. Although there is no high precision earthquake catalogue in the Ecuador seismic cone, it has a single structure and clear aims of strong earthquakes and volcanic activities, and a successful prediction example. So it is a superior earthquake research environment, and is worth our attention.