基于“三条红线”的喀什地区生态工程水资源配置研究

Water Resources Allocation of Ecological Engineering Based on “Three Red Lines” in Kashgar Area

摘要: 为改善生态环境，喀什地区提出了“四长廊”、“四屏障”生态工程。为保证生态工程的供水安全、可持续运行，在满足最严格的水资源管理制度“三条红线”的基础上，亟需对喀什地区的水资源配置进行深入研究。鉴于此，基于喀什地区“三条红线”的控制标准，利用水量平衡模型和多方案调控对水资源进行多方案配置。根据不同的节水措施组成各水平年可用于生态林灌溉的27种方案，对方案的合理性进行分析。结果表明：2015现状水平年供水量最多为5.49亿m3、2020和2030规划水平年下供水量最多为9.95亿m3和11.06亿m3，各水平年27种方案均可用于生态工程，并结合喀什地区实际状况和生态工程进展计划为各水平年推荐了几种较优方案，说明喀什地区“三条红线”指标合理、水资源配置计算结果准确、可靠。根据“以水定林”的基本原则，获得了各水平年推荐方案下不同林种组合下的生态林数量和面积。研究成果为“四长廊”、“四屏障”生态工程的水资源论证提供了科学依据，具有重要的实际指导意义和应用价值。

Abstract: To improve the ecological environment, the ecological project of “Four Corridors” and “Four Barriers” in Kashgar area was proposed. To ensure the water supply safety and continuity of the ecological project, it is urgent to study the water resources allocation based on “three red lines” of the most stringent water resources management system. The water balance model and multiple schemes regulation to water resources allocation were used. According to the different water-saving measures to form the different years, 27 kinds of programs that can be used for ecological forest irrigation, and the rationality of the programs are analyzed. The results indicated that the water supply of the present level year 2015 was up to 0.55 billion m3, and in 2020 and 2030 the water supply can up to about 1 billion m3 and 1.11 billion m3. 27 kinds of programs of each level year can be used for ecological engineering, and a few programs are recommended for different level years combining the situation of Kashgar area with the development of ecological project. It is indicated that the “three red lines” indicators in the Kashgar area are reasonable and the results of water resources allocation are accurate and reliable. According to the basic principle of “amounts of trees determined by water”, the numbers and areas of ecological forest under different forest type combinations are obtained. The research results provide a scientific basis for the demonstration of water resources of “Four Corridors” and “Four Barriers” ecological engineering, which have important practical guiding significance and application value.