最近30年影响长江流域的登陆台风特征分析

Analysis of the Landing Typhoons Affecting the Yangtze River Basin in the Last 30 Years

摘要: 通过收集整理1988~2017年西北太平洋和南海地区生成的台风及长江流域逐日降雨资料，对最近30年登陆我国的台风个数、登陆地点、移动路径、台风强度及影响范围等特征进行统计分析。重点分析了对长江流域降雨有直接影响的登陆台风主要特征，以及其对长江流域影响下的降雨强度、落区特征。结果表明，最近30年西北太平洋、近海及南海地区台风的生成个数与登陆个数呈减少趋势，影响长江流域的登陆台风个数呈不显著增加趋势，且主要集中在每年的7~9月份；对长江流域降雨有直接影响的登陆台风生成源地大多为西太平洋海域地区，生命史中以超强台风所占比例最大；登陆时则多以强热带风暴强度为主，登陆我国福建省的次数最多；登陆后影响长江流域的台风移动路径以东北转向型最多，其次为西移型、偏北型和西北型；登陆台风对长江流域降雨影响最多的地区为鄱阳湖地区，其次为长江下游、洞庭湖。通过分析影响长江流域的台风特征，提炼影响长江流域降雨的台风移动路径与西太平洋副热带高压典型配置形势图，可为以后长江流域防汛防台风提供技术支持和应用参考。

Abstract: The northwest Pacific Ocean and South China Sea typhoon data and the Yangtze River basin daily rainfall data from 1988 to 2017 are collected and used to analyze the number, landing location, traverse route, intensity, influence area and other characteristics of landing typhoons in the last 30 years. The selective analysis includes the landing typhoons with immediate impact on the Yangtze River basin rainfall and their influence on rainfall intensity and area. The results show that the typhoons generated in the northwest Pacific Ocean, offshore areas and South China Sea and the ones making landfall have been decreasing in the last 30 years. The number of landing typhoons affecting the Yangtze River basin exhibits a non-significant uptrend. The landing typhoon mainly occurs between July and September. And the ones with immediate impact on the Yangtze River valley rainfall are mainly generated in the northwest Pacific Ocean. The super typhoons account for the largest proportion in the life history. Major landing typhoons are severe tropical storms, most frequently in Fujian Province. Most landing typhoons affecting the Yangtze River basin are northeast-traversed, followed by the west-, northward- and northwest-traversed. The rainfall area under the biggest influence by landing typhoons over the Yangtze River valley is the Poyang Lake region, followed by the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Dongting Lake. Through the analysis of the typhoons affecting the indicated area, this study depicts the configuration charts of the routes of typhoons affecting the Yangtze River basin rainfall with the west Pacific Ocean subtropical high pressure. The results can provide technical support and application reference for future flood and typhoon prevention over the Yangtze River basin.