长江中下游地区初夏强降水过程扰动能量特征分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Disturbance Energy of Heavy Precipitation in Early Summer in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

摘要: 本文利用2016夏季长江中下游地区的气象探空资料，分析了长江中下游地区的一次强降水过程的特征，利用波包诊断方法，结合降水空间分布以及波包值的变化、扰动能量的传播，来探究波包的传播变化和扰动能量的释放与强降水之间的联系。结果表明：波包值在强降水发生前有显著增长过程，在减小过程中伴随扰动能量的释放，扰动能量的释放对强降水起到了促进作用，同时，在强降水周围的波包大值区也不断为降水区域输送扰动能量，这也是强降水能够维持的一个重要原因。因此通过降水发生前扰动能量的变化特征将此应用于中期天气预报技术，可以提高预报的时效性和准确性。

Abstract: Using the meteorological sounding data of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the summer of 2016, this paper analyzes the characteristics of a heavy rainfall process in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Using wave packet diagnostic methods, combined with the spatial distribution of precipitation and changes in wave packet values, the spread of perturbation energy, we explore the connection between wave propagation changes and the release of disturbance energy and heavy precipitation. The results show that the wave packet value has a significant growth process before the occurrence of heavy precipitation. During the reduction process, the release of perturbation energy contributes to the strong precipitation. At the same time, the wave packet values around the heavy precipitation are significant. The area also continuously transmits disturbance energy to the precipitation area, which is also an important reason why heavy precipitation can be maintained. Therefore, the characteristics of changes in disturbance energy before the occurrence of precipitation are applied to medium-range weather forecasting techniques to improve the timeliness and accuracy of the forecast.