股票市盈率影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Stock’s P/E

摘要: 市盈率作为广大投资者评价股票投资价值的一个重要指标，常被用于公司股票价值的评估当中，用以判断股票价格的高低、风险的大小以及对公司未来盈利能力的预测，所以分析市盈率的具体影响因素，对于实现市盈率的价值具有十分重要的意义。本文利用简单随机抽样的方法任意选取了上证180指数样本股中的34只股票作为研究对象，采用回归分析的统计方法并且利用Excel表格处理工具、运用相关软件进行定量分析，为了详细深入研究各因素之间的关系，对各要素的统计数据利用OLS进行多元线性回归分析，并建立三个有效的总回归模型和分回归模型，从各个模型拟合度的高低来说明所建立的回归模型的有效性，进而证实所选择的关键因素对市盈率的贡献度，最后得出行业平均市盈率与每股收益增长率对市盈率的影响最大。同时，投资者可以利用这三个有效的回归模型对个股的市盈率水平进行合理预测，从而更加理性地判断股票的投资价值。

Abstract: As an important index to evaluate the value of stock investment, the price earnings ratio is often used in the evaluation of the stock value of the company to judge the price of the stock, the size of the risk and the forecast of the future profitability of the company. So the specific factors of the price earnings ratio are analyzed, which are of great significance to realize the value of the price earnings ratio. Using the method of simple random sampling, this paper selects 34 stocks of the 180 index stock of SSE as the research object, uses the statistical method of regression analysis and quantitative analysis by adopting the processing tools of the table and the related software, in order to study the relationship between the factors in detail and the statistics of the factors. The data are analyzed by multiple linear regression using OLS and three effective total regression models and regression models are established. The validity of the regression model is explained from the fitting degree of each model and the contribution of the selected key factors to the price earnings ratio is confirmed, and the average P/E ratio and earnings per share are increased, which have the greatest impact on the P/E ratio. At the same time, investors can make use of these three effective regression models to reasonably predict the price earnings ratio of the stock, so as to make a more rational judgment of the investment value of the stock.